气候变暖条件下北太平洋西部登陆热带气旋降雨结构的变化

IF 7.3 1区 地球科学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
Earths Future Pub Date : 2024-09-06 DOI:10.1029/2024EF004808
Thao Linh Tran, Elizabeth A. Ritchie, Sarah E. Perkins-Kirkpatrick, Hai Bui, Thang M. Luong
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引用次数: 0

摘要

观测和气候预测表明,热带气旋引起的降雨量增加幅度大于克劳修斯-克拉皮隆关系所能解释的幅度,即温度每升高 1 摄氏度,水汽含量增加 7%。然而,这些研究在不同时期使用了不同的数据源和方法,但在降雨量增加的位置上--无论是在热带气旋的内核还是外围地区--显示出不一致,并对所报告的趋势提供了不同的解释。本研究使用伪全球变暖方法模拟 117 个登陆东南亚的北太平洋西部热带气旋,研究在 SSP2-4.5 和 SSP3-7.0 情景下本世纪末热带气旋降雨结构的变化。具体而言,它测试了变化趋势对以往研究中使用的各种分析方法的敏感性,并确定了驱动这些变化的基本物理机制。研究结果表明,在所有未来情景下,热带气旋内核的降雨量都会增加,而在某些未来气候条件下,外围区域的降雨量可能会减少。在热带气旋类别中,超强台风在各种未来状态下的降雨量增加最为显著。形成未来降雨模式的主要因素是热带气旋主环流和副环流的变化、热带气旋结构以及热量和水汽的汇聚,其影响超过了大气和对流稳定性变化的影响。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。

Variations in Rainfall Structure of Western North Pacific Landfalling Tropical Cyclones in the Warming Climates

Variations in Rainfall Structure of Western North Pacific Landfalling Tropical Cyclones in the Warming Climates

Observations and climate projections suggest a larger increase in tropical cyclone (TC)-induced rainfall than that can be explained by the Clausius-Clapeyron relationship of 7% increase in vapor content for each 1°C degree rise in temperature. However, these studies using diverse data sources and methods over various periods show inconsistencies regarding the location of this increase - whether in the TC inner core or outer regions - and offer differing explanations for the reported trends. This study uses the Pseudo-global warming methodology on simulations of 117 western North Pacific TCs making landfall in Southeast Asia to investigate changes in TC rainfall structure by the end of the century under the SSP2-4.5 and SSP3-7.0 scenarios. Specifically, it tests the sensitivity of changing trends to various analysis methods used in previous studies and identifies the underlying physical mechanisms driving these changes. The findings indicate an amplified increase in rainfall in the TC inner core across all future scenarios, along with potentially decreased rainfall in the outer region under certain future climate conditions. Among TC categories, Supertyphoons exhibit the most significant increased rainfall across future states. Changes in TC primary and secondary circulations, TC structure, and the convergence of heat and moisture are the main factors shaping future rainfall patterns, outweighing the effects of changes in atmospheric and convective stability.

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来源期刊
Earths Future
Earths Future ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCESGEOSCIENCES, MULTIDI-GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY
CiteScore
11.00
自引率
7.30%
发文量
260
审稿时长
16 weeks
期刊介绍: Earth’s Future: A transdisciplinary open access journal, Earth’s Future focuses on the state of the Earth and the prediction of the planet’s future. By publishing peer-reviewed articles as well as editorials, essays, reviews, and commentaries, this journal will be the preeminent scholarly resource on the Anthropocene. It will also help assess the risks and opportunities associated with environmental changes and challenges.
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