José-Víctor Rodríguez , Víctor Manuel Sánchez Carrasco , Ignacio Rodríguez-Rodríguez , Alejandro Jesús Pérez Aparicio , José Manuel Vaquero
{"title":"我们是否正在穿越格里斯伯格百年周期的最低点?利用不同的太阳活动代用指标和光谱分析,基于多变量机器学习预测太阳黑子数量","authors":"José-Víctor Rodríguez , Víctor Manuel Sánchez Carrasco , Ignacio Rodríguez-Rodríguez , Alejandro Jesús Pérez Aparicio , José Manuel Vaquero","doi":"10.1016/j.asr.2024.08.033","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>We propose a new method for predicting the solar cycle in terms of the sunspot number (S<sub>N</sub>) based on multivariate machine learning algorithms, various proxies of solar activity, and the spectral analysis of all considered time series via the fast Fourier transform (through the latter we identify periodicities with which to lag these series and thus generate new attributes –predictors– for incorporation in the prediction model). This combination of three different techniques in a single method is expected to enhance the accuracy and reliability of the solar activity prediction models developed to date. Thus, predictive results for S<sub>N</sub> are presented for Solar Cycles 25 (the current one) and 26 (using the 13-month smoothed S<sub>N</sub>, version 2) up until January 2038, yielding maximum values of 134.2 (in June 2024) and 115.4 (in May 2034), respectively, with a root mean squared error (RMSE) of 9.8. These results imply, on the one hand, a maximum of Cycle 25 below the average and, on the other hand, a lower peak than the preceding ones for Cycle 26, suggesting that Solar Cycles 24, 25, and 26 are part of a minimum of the centennial Gleissberg cycle, as occurred with Cycles 12, 13, and 14 in the final years of the 19th century and the early 20th century.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":50850,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Space Research","volume":"74 8","pages":"Pages 4173-4188"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8000,"publicationDate":"2024-08-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0273117724008524/pdfft?md5=f3b6cbb55c005f26a53413d76da7d6f8&pid=1-s2.0-S0273117724008524-main.pdf","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Are we crossing a minimum of the Gleissberg centennial cycle? Multivariate machine learning-based prediction of the sunspot number using different proxies of solar activity and spectral analysis\",\"authors\":\"José-Víctor Rodríguez , Víctor Manuel Sánchez Carrasco , Ignacio Rodríguez-Rodríguez , Alejandro Jesús Pérez Aparicio , José Manuel Vaquero\",\"doi\":\"10.1016/j.asr.2024.08.033\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<div><p>We propose a new method for predicting the solar cycle in terms of the sunspot number (S<sub>N</sub>) based on multivariate machine learning algorithms, various proxies of solar activity, and the spectral analysis of all considered time series via the fast Fourier transform (through the latter we identify periodicities with which to lag these series and thus generate new attributes –predictors– for incorporation in the prediction model). This combination of three different techniques in a single method is expected to enhance the accuracy and reliability of the solar activity prediction models developed to date. Thus, predictive results for S<sub>N</sub> are presented for Solar Cycles 25 (the current one) and 26 (using the 13-month smoothed S<sub>N</sub>, version 2) up until January 2038, yielding maximum values of 134.2 (in June 2024) and 115.4 (in May 2034), respectively, with a root mean squared error (RMSE) of 9.8. These results imply, on the one hand, a maximum of Cycle 25 below the average and, on the other hand, a lower peak than the preceding ones for Cycle 26, suggesting that Solar Cycles 24, 25, and 26 are part of a minimum of the centennial Gleissberg cycle, as occurred with Cycles 12, 13, and 14 in the final years of the 19th century and the early 20th century.</p></div>\",\"PeriodicalId\":50850,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Advances in Space Research\",\"volume\":\"74 8\",\"pages\":\"Pages 4173-4188\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":2.8000,\"publicationDate\":\"2024-08-14\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0273117724008524/pdfft?md5=f3b6cbb55c005f26a53413d76da7d6f8&pid=1-s2.0-S0273117724008524-main.pdf\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Advances in Space Research\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"89\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0273117724008524\",\"RegionNum\":3,\"RegionCategory\":\"地球科学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q2\",\"JCRName\":\"ASTRONOMY & ASTROPHYSICS\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Advances in Space Research","FirstCategoryId":"89","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0273117724008524","RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"ASTRONOMY & ASTROPHYSICS","Score":null,"Total":0}
Are we crossing a minimum of the Gleissberg centennial cycle? Multivariate machine learning-based prediction of the sunspot number using different proxies of solar activity and spectral analysis
We propose a new method for predicting the solar cycle in terms of the sunspot number (SN) based on multivariate machine learning algorithms, various proxies of solar activity, and the spectral analysis of all considered time series via the fast Fourier transform (through the latter we identify periodicities with which to lag these series and thus generate new attributes –predictors– for incorporation in the prediction model). This combination of three different techniques in a single method is expected to enhance the accuracy and reliability of the solar activity prediction models developed to date. Thus, predictive results for SN are presented for Solar Cycles 25 (the current one) and 26 (using the 13-month smoothed SN, version 2) up until January 2038, yielding maximum values of 134.2 (in June 2024) and 115.4 (in May 2034), respectively, with a root mean squared error (RMSE) of 9.8. These results imply, on the one hand, a maximum of Cycle 25 below the average and, on the other hand, a lower peak than the preceding ones for Cycle 26, suggesting that Solar Cycles 24, 25, and 26 are part of a minimum of the centennial Gleissberg cycle, as occurred with Cycles 12, 13, and 14 in the final years of the 19th century and the early 20th century.
期刊介绍:
The COSPAR publication Advances in Space Research (ASR) is an open journal covering all areas of space research including: space studies of the Earth''s surface, meteorology, climate, the Earth-Moon system, planets and small bodies of the solar system, upper atmospheres, ionospheres and magnetospheres of the Earth and planets including reference atmospheres, space plasmas in the solar system, astrophysics from space, materials sciences in space, fundamental physics in space, space debris, space weather, Earth observations of space phenomena, etc.
NB: Please note that manuscripts related to life sciences as related to space are no more accepted for submission to Advances in Space Research. Such manuscripts should now be submitted to the new COSPAR Journal Life Sciences in Space Research (LSSR).
All submissions are reviewed by two scientists in the field. COSPAR is an interdisciplinary scientific organization concerned with the progress of space research on an international scale. Operating under the rules of ICSU, COSPAR ignores political considerations and considers all questions solely from the scientific viewpoint.