{"title":"将热量收支动态纳入基于变压器的深度学习模型,以熟练预测厄尔尼诺/南方涛动","authors":"Bin Mu, Yuehan Cui, Shijin Yuan, Bo Qin","doi":"10.1038/s41612-024-00741-y","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"While deep learning models have shown promising capabilities in ENSO prediction, their inherent black-box nature often leads to a lack of physical consistency and interpretability. Here, we introduce ENSO-PhyNet, a Transformer-based model for ENSO prediction, which incorporates heat budget dynamical processes through self-attention computations. The model predicts sea surface temperature (SST) in the equatorial Pacific and achieves skillful predictions of the Niño 3.4 index with a lead time of up to 22 months. The self-attention maps reveal how the model makes predictions by focusing on specific processes in certain regions. Case analyses of recent El Niño and La Niña events underscore the impact of thermocline feedback and zonal advection feedback on the warming of the 2015 event, as well as the crucial role of anomalous easterlies in the emergence of the second-year La Niña in 2021. These findings demonstrate the model’s interpretability and its ability to identify signals that are physically consistent with the development of ENSO events.","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":" ","pages":"1-15"},"PeriodicalIF":8.5000,"publicationDate":"2024-09-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-024-00741-y.pdf","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Incorporating heat budget dynamics in a Transformer-based deep learning model for skillful ENSO prediction\",\"authors\":\"Bin Mu, Yuehan Cui, Shijin Yuan, Bo Qin\",\"doi\":\"10.1038/s41612-024-00741-y\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"While deep learning models have shown promising capabilities in ENSO prediction, their inherent black-box nature often leads to a lack of physical consistency and interpretability. Here, we introduce ENSO-PhyNet, a Transformer-based model for ENSO prediction, which incorporates heat budget dynamical processes through self-attention computations. The model predicts sea surface temperature (SST) in the equatorial Pacific and achieves skillful predictions of the Niño 3.4 index with a lead time of up to 22 months. The self-attention maps reveal how the model makes predictions by focusing on specific processes in certain regions. Case analyses of recent El Niño and La Niña events underscore the impact of thermocline feedback and zonal advection feedback on the warming of the 2015 event, as well as the crucial role of anomalous easterlies in the emergence of the second-year La Niña in 2021. These findings demonstrate the model’s interpretability and its ability to identify signals that are physically consistent with the development of ENSO events.\",\"PeriodicalId\":19438,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science\",\"volume\":\" \",\"pages\":\"1-15\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":8.5000,\"publicationDate\":\"2024-09-06\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-024-00741-y.pdf\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"89\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-024-00741-y\",\"RegionNum\":1,\"RegionCategory\":\"地球科学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q1\",\"JCRName\":\"METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","FirstCategoryId":"89","ListUrlMain":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-024-00741-y","RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES","Score":null,"Total":0}
Incorporating heat budget dynamics in a Transformer-based deep learning model for skillful ENSO prediction
While deep learning models have shown promising capabilities in ENSO prediction, their inherent black-box nature often leads to a lack of physical consistency and interpretability. Here, we introduce ENSO-PhyNet, a Transformer-based model for ENSO prediction, which incorporates heat budget dynamical processes through self-attention computations. The model predicts sea surface temperature (SST) in the equatorial Pacific and achieves skillful predictions of the Niño 3.4 index with a lead time of up to 22 months. The self-attention maps reveal how the model makes predictions by focusing on specific processes in certain regions. Case analyses of recent El Niño and La Niña events underscore the impact of thermocline feedback and zonal advection feedback on the warming of the 2015 event, as well as the crucial role of anomalous easterlies in the emergence of the second-year La Niña in 2021. These findings demonstrate the model’s interpretability and its ability to identify signals that are physically consistent with the development of ENSO events.
期刊介绍:
npj Climate and Atmospheric Science is an open-access journal encompassing the relevant physical, chemical, and biological aspects of atmospheric and climate science. The journal places particular emphasis on regional studies that unveil new insights into specific localities, including examinations of local atmospheric composition, such as aerosols.
The range of topics covered by the journal includes climate dynamics, climate variability, weather and climate prediction, climate change, ocean dynamics, weather extremes, air pollution, atmospheric chemistry (including aerosols), the hydrological cycle, and atmosphere–ocean and atmosphere–land interactions. The journal welcomes studies employing a diverse array of methods, including numerical and statistical modeling, the development and application of in situ observational techniques, remote sensing, and the development or evaluation of new reanalyses.