Assessing and mapping of soil organic carbon at multiple depths in the semi-arid Trans-Ural steppe zone

The quantification of soil organic carbon (SOC) and its vertical distribution is crucial for understanding carbon dynamics in terrestrial ecosystems. This study aimed to 2.5D digital mapping of SOC content in the Trans-Ural steppe zone (Russia) using a quantile regression forest (QRF) approach. The study utilized a dataset comprising 2495 SOC measurements collected from 1316 locations across three soil depths: 0–20 cm, 20–40 cm, and 40–60 cm. Environmental covariates were incorporated into the SOC modeling process, capturing major soil formation factors, and the uncertainty of the generated maps was estimated. The results revealed that SOC content ranged from 0.59 to 9.05 % in the topsoil, from 0.5 to 6.61 % in the subsurface layer and from 0.06 to 4.64 % in the subsoil. Based on the error metrics, including root mean square error (RMSE), coefficient of determination (R²), and Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient (NSE), we found a decrease in prediction accuracy with increasing soil depth. Furthermore, climate and vegetation variables, as well as elevation, emerged as key factors influencing the prediction of SOC concentrations at all depths. We also made an attempt to assess the future change of SOC under the influence of climate and anthropogenic impact. We anticipate that climate aridization and plowing will lead to a decline in SOC content in the Trans-Ural steppe region. Our findings contribute to the existing knowledge of SOC dynamics in steppe ecosystems at several depths, supporting informed decision-making for sustainable land use and climate change mitigation strategies.