Brandon D. Merriell, Micheline Manseau, Paul J. Wilson
{"title":"评估近亲标记重捕一次性采样活动的适宜性:驯鹿案例研究。","authors":"Brandon D. Merriell, Micheline Manseau, Paul J. Wilson","doi":"10.1002/ece3.70230","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p>Abundance estimation is frequently an objective of conservation and monitoring initiatives for threatened and other managed populations. While abundance estimation via capture–mark–recapture or spatially explicit capture–recapture is now common, such approaches are logistically challenging and expensive for species such as boreal caribou (<i>Rangifer tarandus</i>), which inhabit remote regions, are widely dispersed, and exist at low densities. Fortunately, the recently developed ‘close-kin mark–recapture’ (CKMR) framework, which uses the number of kin pairs obtained within a sample to generate an abundance estimate, eliminates the need for multiple sampling events. As a result, some caribou managers are interested in using this method to generate an abundance estimate from a single, non-invasive sampling event for caribou populations. We conducted a simulation study using realistic boreal caribou demographic rates and population sizes to assess how population size and the proportion of the population surveyed impact the accuracy and precision of single-survey CKMR-based abundance estimates. Our results indicated that abundance estimates were biased and highly imprecise when very small proportions of the population were sampled, regardless of the population size. However, the larger the population size, the smaller the required proportion of the population surveyed to generate both accurate and reasonably precise estimates. Additionally, we also present a case study in which we used the CKMR framework to generate annual female abundance estimates for a small caribou population in Jasper National Park, Alberta, Canada, from 2006 to 2015 and compared them to existing published capture–mark–recapture-based estimates. Both the accuracy and precision of the annual CKMR-based abundance estimates varied across years and were sensitive to the proportion of pairwise kinship comparisons which yielded a mother–offspring pair. Taken together, our study demonstrates that it is possible to generate CKMR-based abundance estimates from a single sampling event for small caribou populations, so long as a sufficient sampling intensity can be achieved.</p>","PeriodicalId":11467,"journal":{"name":"Ecology and Evolution","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.3000,"publicationDate":"2024-09-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11371883/pdf/","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Assessing the suitability of a one-time sampling event for close-kin mark-recapture: A caribou case study\",\"authors\":\"Brandon D. Merriell, Micheline Manseau, Paul J. Wilson\",\"doi\":\"10.1002/ece3.70230\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<p>Abundance estimation is frequently an objective of conservation and monitoring initiatives for threatened and other managed populations. While abundance estimation via capture–mark–recapture or spatially explicit capture–recapture is now common, such approaches are logistically challenging and expensive for species such as boreal caribou (<i>Rangifer tarandus</i>), which inhabit remote regions, are widely dispersed, and exist at low densities. Fortunately, the recently developed ‘close-kin mark–recapture’ (CKMR) framework, which uses the number of kin pairs obtained within a sample to generate an abundance estimate, eliminates the need for multiple sampling events. As a result, some caribou managers are interested in using this method to generate an abundance estimate from a single, non-invasive sampling event for caribou populations. We conducted a simulation study using realistic boreal caribou demographic rates and population sizes to assess how population size and the proportion of the population surveyed impact the accuracy and precision of single-survey CKMR-based abundance estimates. Our results indicated that abundance estimates were biased and highly imprecise when very small proportions of the population were sampled, regardless of the population size. However, the larger the population size, the smaller the required proportion of the population surveyed to generate both accurate and reasonably precise estimates. Additionally, we also present a case study in which we used the CKMR framework to generate annual female abundance estimates for a small caribou population in Jasper National Park, Alberta, Canada, from 2006 to 2015 and compared them to existing published capture–mark–recapture-based estimates. Both the accuracy and precision of the annual CKMR-based abundance estimates varied across years and were sensitive to the proportion of pairwise kinship comparisons which yielded a mother–offspring pair. Taken together, our study demonstrates that it is possible to generate CKMR-based abundance estimates from a single sampling event for small caribou populations, so long as a sufficient sampling intensity can be achieved.</p>\",\"PeriodicalId\":11467,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Ecology and Evolution\",\"volume\":null,\"pages\":null},\"PeriodicalIF\":2.3000,\"publicationDate\":\"2024-09-03\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11371883/pdf/\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Ecology and Evolution\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"99\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/ece3.70230\",\"RegionNum\":2,\"RegionCategory\":\"生物学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q2\",\"JCRName\":\"ECOLOGY\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Ecology and Evolution","FirstCategoryId":"99","ListUrlMain":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/ece3.70230","RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"生物学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"ECOLOGY","Score":null,"Total":0}
Assessing the suitability of a one-time sampling event for close-kin mark-recapture: A caribou case study
Abundance estimation is frequently an objective of conservation and monitoring initiatives for threatened and other managed populations. While abundance estimation via capture–mark–recapture or spatially explicit capture–recapture is now common, such approaches are logistically challenging and expensive for species such as boreal caribou (Rangifer tarandus), which inhabit remote regions, are widely dispersed, and exist at low densities. Fortunately, the recently developed ‘close-kin mark–recapture’ (CKMR) framework, which uses the number of kin pairs obtained within a sample to generate an abundance estimate, eliminates the need for multiple sampling events. As a result, some caribou managers are interested in using this method to generate an abundance estimate from a single, non-invasive sampling event for caribou populations. We conducted a simulation study using realistic boreal caribou demographic rates and population sizes to assess how population size and the proportion of the population surveyed impact the accuracy and precision of single-survey CKMR-based abundance estimates. Our results indicated that abundance estimates were biased and highly imprecise when very small proportions of the population were sampled, regardless of the population size. However, the larger the population size, the smaller the required proportion of the population surveyed to generate both accurate and reasonably precise estimates. Additionally, we also present a case study in which we used the CKMR framework to generate annual female abundance estimates for a small caribou population in Jasper National Park, Alberta, Canada, from 2006 to 2015 and compared them to existing published capture–mark–recapture-based estimates. Both the accuracy and precision of the annual CKMR-based abundance estimates varied across years and were sensitive to the proportion of pairwise kinship comparisons which yielded a mother–offspring pair. Taken together, our study demonstrates that it is possible to generate CKMR-based abundance estimates from a single sampling event for small caribou populations, so long as a sufficient sampling intensity can be achieved.
期刊介绍:
Ecology and Evolution is the peer reviewed journal for rapid dissemination of research in all areas of ecology, evolution and conservation science. The journal gives priority to quality research reports, theoretical or empirical, that develop our understanding of organisms and their diversity, interactions between them, and the natural environment.
Ecology and Evolution gives prompt and equal consideration to papers reporting theoretical, experimental, applied and descriptive work in terrestrial and aquatic environments. The journal will consider submissions across taxa in areas including but not limited to micro and macro ecological and evolutionary processes, characteristics of and interactions between individuals, populations, communities and the environment, physiological responses to environmental change, population genetics and phylogenetics, relatedness and kin selection, life histories, systematics and taxonomy, conservation genetics, extinction, speciation, adaption, behaviour, biodiversity, species abundance, macroecology, population and ecosystem dynamics, and conservation policy.