Not population density, but city size and per capita income influence the urban forest carbon sequestration: A case of growing cities in Arkansas, USA

While urban trees provides significant ecosystem services, the impact of increasing urbanization and population on their carbon sequestration potential remains relatively underexplored in interior sprawling cities, highlighting a critical research gap amid growing urban environmental challenges. Although existing studies suggest a strongly correlation between urban forest cover and carbon sequestration, this study aims to investigate how the urban demography factors influence land cover and carbon sequestration across cities with low, medium, and high population densities. Using the i-Tree Canopy tool, we sampled 18,814 random points to estimate city land cover and carbon sequestration in Arkansas, interior state of the US. Results from the principal component analysis revealed that 74% of the variation in a city's land cover among population density classes is attributed to tree and soil cover percentages. The mean annual (1.40 ± 0.08 T ha^-1) and total carbon sequestration rates (35.30 ± 5.57 T ha^-1) were significantly higher in the areas with low population density due to a higher average tree cover percentage (46%). Carbon sequestration rate was negatively associated with land cover types such as impervious surfaces like buildings (r = -0.44), roads (r = -0.28), grass cover (r = -0.46), and impervious other (r = -0.53). The log-linear model with scaled variables suggested that factors such as city's size and tree cover has positive influence urban trees' annual and total carbon sequestration, while spatial distribution and per capita income negatively affect these ecosystem befits in growing cities, regardless of population density. Travel time within city may have negative impact, while decadal population change may positively impact on carbon sequestration alongside management effort. Valuing this potential urban forest carbon sequestration for emerging carbon market could provide monetary benefits to the urban communities, city managers, and policymakers, enabling the development of effective urban forest management strategies in the context of urban climate change.