High serum progesterone levels on the day of embryo transfer in patients undergoing artificial frozen-thawed blastocyst transfer: Is there a ceiling effect?

Objective: To evaluate the potential ceiling effect of high serum progesterone levels on the day of embryo transfer for pregnancy outcomes in patients undergoing artificial frozen-thawed blastocyst transfer (FET) cycles.

Materials and methods: This retrospective cohort study included 595 patients who underwent artificial FET cycles. We evaluated progesterone levels and found that 40.6 ng/mL corresponded to the 90th percentile and 23.9 ng/mL corresponded to the 50th percentile. Based on these findings, we categorized progesterone levels as <20 ng/mL (n=220, 37.0%), 20-40 ng/mL (n=312, 52.4%), and ≥40 ng/mL (n=63, 10.6%). The primary outcome measures were the clinical pregnancy rate (CPR) and live birth rate (LBR).

Results: Blastocyst morphology grades, including expansion, trophectoderm, and inner cell mass grades, were significantly associated with clinical pregnancy (p<0.001 for all). Progesterone levels between 20 and 40 ng/mL were associated with higher CPR (p=0.043). In the multivariate analysis, only blastocyst expansion and inner cell mass grades were independently and significantly associated with CPR [p=0.011, odds ratio (OR)=1.6, (confidence interval) CI 95%=1.13-2.39, and p=0.007, OR=1.65, CI 95%=1.14-2.39, respectively]. The progesterone level and trophectoderm grade were not statistically significant. Regarding LBR, only blastocyst expansion grades 4 and trophectoderm grades A or B were significantly associated.

Conclusion: Based on these data, we speculate that if serum progesterone levels exceed 40 ng/mL on the day of embryo transfer in patients undergoing artificial FET cycles, there is no need to reduce the progesterone dose.