两种气候情景下的复合极端气候及人口、农业和林地暴露的全球评估

IF 7.3 1区 地球科学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
Earths Future Pub Date : 2024-09-02 DOI:10.1029/2024EF004845
Tayler A. Schillerberg, Di Tian
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引用次数: 0

摘要

预计气候变化将增加全球热浪、极端降水和暴旱的发生率和强度。然而,人们对热浪、极端降水和山洪干旱复合事件可能会如何变化,以及在未来气候变化情景下全球人口、农业和森林可能会如何受到这些复合事件的影响还不甚了解。这项研究利用八个 CMIP6 气候模型,在 21 世纪早期、中期和晚期三个时间段内,根据两种气候情景--共享社会经济路径(SSP)、SSP1-2.6 和 SSP5-8.5,评估当前和未来全球复合气候极端事件,以及人口、农业和林业对这些事件的暴露程度。通过使用取决于地点的阈值,得出了热浪、极端降水和暴旱的极端气候。我们发现,在 SSP5-8.5 后世对连续热浪和山洪灾害的预测中,复合热浪和山洪灾害事件导致人口、农业和林地所受影响的增幅最大。与历史时期相比,本世纪末的连续热浪和暴旱预测显示,中国、印度和欧洲的人口暴露增加热点超过 5000 万人次;中国、南美洲和大洋洲的农业用地暴露增加热点超过 9 万平方千米;大洋洲和南美洲地区的林地暴露增加热点超过 12 万平方千米。这项研究的结果可能有助于为全球气候适应提供信息。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。

Global Assessment of Compound Climate Extremes and Exposures of Population, Agriculture, and Forest Lands Under Two Climate Scenarios

Global Assessment of Compound Climate Extremes and Exposures of Population, Agriculture, and Forest Lands Under Two Climate Scenarios

Climate change is expected to increase the global occurrence and intensity of heatwaves, extreme precipitation, and flash droughts. However, it is not well understood how the compound heatwave, extreme precipitation, and flash drought events will likely change, and how global population, agriculture, and forest will likely be exposed to these compound events under future climate change scenarios. This research uses eight CMIP6 climate models to assess the current and future global compound climate extreme events, as well as population, agriculture, and forestry exposures to these events, under two climate scenarios, Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP), SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5 for three time periods: early-, mid-, and late- 21st century. Climate extremes are derived for heatwaves, extreme precipitation, and flash droughts using locational-dependent thresholds. We find that compound heatwaves and flash drought events result in the largest increases in exposure of populations, agriculture, and forest lands, under SSP5-8.5 late-century projections of sequential heatwaves and flash droughts. Late-century projections of sequential heatwaves and flash droughts show hot spots of exposure increases in population exposure greater than 50 million person-events in China, India, and Europe; increases in agriculture land exposures greater than 90 thousand km2-events in China, South America, and Oceania; and increase in forest land exposure greater than 120 thousand km2-events in Oceania and South America regions when compared to the historical period. The findings from this study can be potentially useful for informing global climate adaptations.

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来源期刊
Earths Future
Earths Future ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCESGEOSCIENCES, MULTIDI-GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY
CiteScore
11.00
自引率
7.30%
发文量
260
审稿时长
16 weeks
期刊介绍: Earth’s Future: A transdisciplinary open access journal, Earth’s Future focuses on the state of the Earth and the prediction of the planet’s future. By publishing peer-reviewed articles as well as editorials, essays, reviews, and commentaries, this journal will be the preeminent scholarly resource on the Anthropocene. It will also help assess the risks and opportunities associated with environmental changes and challenges.
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