Establishment of predictive models and determinants of preoperative gastric retention in endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography.

Background: Study on influencing factors of gastric retention before endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography (ERCP) background: With the wide application of ERCP, the risk of preoperative gastric retention affects the smooth progress of the operation. The study found that female, biliary and pancreatic malignant tumor, digestive tract obstruction and other factors are closely related to gastric retention, so the establishment of predictive model is very important to reduce the risk of operation.

Aim: To analyze the factors influencing preoperative gastric retention in ERCP and establish a predictive model.

Methods: A retrospective analysis was conducted on 190 patients admitted to our hospital for ERCP preparation between January 2020 and February 2024. Patient baseline clinical data were collected using an electronic medical record system. Patients were randomly matched in a 1:4 ratio with data from 190 patients during the same period to establish a validation group (n = 38) and a modeling group (n = 152). Patients in the modeling group were divided into the gastric retention group (n = 52) and non-gastric retention group (n = 100) based on whether gastric retention occurred preoperatively. General data of patients in the validation group and modeling group were compared. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were performed to identify factors influencing preoperative gastric retention in ERCP patients. A predictive model for preoperative gastric retention in ERCP patients was constructed, and calibration curves were used for validation. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was analyzed to evaluate the predictive value of the model.

Results: We found no statistically significant difference in general data between the validation group and modeling group (P > 0.05). The comparison of age, body mass index, hypertension, and diabetes between the two groups showed no statistically significant difference (P > 0.05). However, we noted statistically significant differences in gender, primary disease, jaundice, opioid use, and gastrointestinal obstruction between the two groups (P < 0.05). Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that gender, primary disease, jaundice, opioid use, and gastrointestinal obstruction were independent factors influencing preoperative gastric retention in ERCP patients (P < 0.05). The results of logistic regression analysis revealed that gender, primary disease, jaundice, opioid use, and gastrointestinal obstruction were included in the predictive model for preoperative gastric retention in ERCP patients. The calibration curves in the training set and validation set showed a slope close to 1, indicating good consistency between the predicted risk and actual risk. The ROC analysis results showed that the area under the curve (AUC) of the predictive model for preoperative gastric retention in ERCP patients in the training set was 0.901 with a standard error of 0.023 (95%CI: 0.8264-0.9567), and the optimal cutoff value was 0.71, with a sensitivity of 87.5 and specificity of 84.2. In the validation set, the AUC of the predictive model was 0.842 with a standard error of 0.013 (95%CI: 0.8061-0.9216), and the optimal cutoff value was 0.56, with a sensitivity of 56.2 and specificity of 100.0.

Conclusion: Gender, primary disease, jaundice, opioid use, and gastrointestinal obstruction are factors influencing preoperative gastric retention in ERCP patients. A predictive model established based on these factors has high predictive value.