{"title":"基于逐步分解技术的新型优化耦合降雨模型模拟。","authors":"Zhiwen Zheng, Yuan Yao, Xianqi Zhang, Yue Zhao, Yu Qi","doi":"10.2166/wst.2024.263","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Precipitation forecasting plays a pivotal role in guiding the effective management of regional water resources and providing crucial warnings for regional droughts and floods. Finding a monthly precipitation simulation model with robust fitting performance is a significant research endeavor in practical precipitation prediction. This paper introduces two modified African vulture optimization algorithms (MAVOA1 and MAVOA2). It provides hyperparameter optimization techniques for the least squares support vector machine (LSSVM), long short-term memory neural network (LSTM), and random forest (RF) models. These techniques are used to construct a monthly precipitation simulation model based on algorithmic optimization coupled with variational mode decomposition for full decomposition. The test results at five typical stations in the North China Plain reveal the following: (1) the LSSVM model demonstrates significantly better performance than the LSTM and RF models. (2) the MAVOA2-LSSVM model has the best-integrated effect: the average test fitting error is RMSE = 17.50 mm/month, MRE = 117.25%, NSE = 0.90, which shows its superiority in practical application and can significantly improve the accuracy of precipitation prediction; MAVOA2 is more suitable for machine learning models with more hyperparameters of its own, which provides a reference for hyperparameter optimization algorithms in the other fields.</p>","PeriodicalId":23653,"journal":{"name":"Water Science and Technology","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.5000,"publicationDate":"2024-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Novel optimized coupled rainfall model simulation based on stepwise decomposition technique.\",\"authors\":\"Zhiwen Zheng, Yuan Yao, Xianqi Zhang, Yue Zhao, Yu Qi\",\"doi\":\"10.2166/wst.2024.263\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<p><p>Precipitation forecasting plays a pivotal role in guiding the effective management of regional water resources and providing crucial warnings for regional droughts and floods. Finding a monthly precipitation simulation model with robust fitting performance is a significant research endeavor in practical precipitation prediction. This paper introduces two modified African vulture optimization algorithms (MAVOA1 and MAVOA2). It provides hyperparameter optimization techniques for the least squares support vector machine (LSSVM), long short-term memory neural network (LSTM), and random forest (RF) models. These techniques are used to construct a monthly precipitation simulation model based on algorithmic optimization coupled with variational mode decomposition for full decomposition. The test results at five typical stations in the North China Plain reveal the following: (1) the LSSVM model demonstrates significantly better performance than the LSTM and RF models. (2) the MAVOA2-LSSVM model has the best-integrated effect: the average test fitting error is RMSE = 17.50 mm/month, MRE = 117.25%, NSE = 0.90, which shows its superiority in practical application and can significantly improve the accuracy of precipitation prediction; MAVOA2 is more suitable for machine learning models with more hyperparameters of its own, which provides a reference for hyperparameter optimization algorithms in the other fields.</p>\",\"PeriodicalId\":23653,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Water Science and Technology\",\"volume\":null,\"pages\":null},\"PeriodicalIF\":2.5000,\"publicationDate\":\"2024-08-01\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Water Science and Technology\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"93\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.2166/wst.2024.263\",\"RegionNum\":4,\"RegionCategory\":\"环境科学与生态学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"2024/7/31 0:00:00\",\"PubModel\":\"Epub\",\"JCR\":\"Q3\",\"JCRName\":\"ENGINEERING, ENVIRONMENTAL\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Water Science and Technology","FirstCategoryId":"93","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.2166/wst.2024.263","RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"2024/7/31 0:00:00","PubModel":"Epub","JCR":"Q3","JCRName":"ENGINEERING, ENVIRONMENTAL","Score":null,"Total":0}
Novel optimized coupled rainfall model simulation based on stepwise decomposition technique.
Precipitation forecasting plays a pivotal role in guiding the effective management of regional water resources and providing crucial warnings for regional droughts and floods. Finding a monthly precipitation simulation model with robust fitting performance is a significant research endeavor in practical precipitation prediction. This paper introduces two modified African vulture optimization algorithms (MAVOA1 and MAVOA2). It provides hyperparameter optimization techniques for the least squares support vector machine (LSSVM), long short-term memory neural network (LSTM), and random forest (RF) models. These techniques are used to construct a monthly precipitation simulation model based on algorithmic optimization coupled with variational mode decomposition for full decomposition. The test results at five typical stations in the North China Plain reveal the following: (1) the LSSVM model demonstrates significantly better performance than the LSTM and RF models. (2) the MAVOA2-LSSVM model has the best-integrated effect: the average test fitting error is RMSE = 17.50 mm/month, MRE = 117.25%, NSE = 0.90, which shows its superiority in practical application and can significantly improve the accuracy of precipitation prediction; MAVOA2 is more suitable for machine learning models with more hyperparameters of its own, which provides a reference for hyperparameter optimization algorithms in the other fields.
期刊介绍:
Water Science and Technology publishes peer-reviewed papers on all aspects of the science and technology of water and wastewater. Papers are selected by a rigorous peer review procedure with the aim of rapid and wide dissemination of research results, development and application of new techniques, and related managerial and policy issues. Scientists, engineers, consultants, managers and policy-makers will find this journal essential as a permanent record of progress of research activities and their practical applications.