RegionGrow3D:用于描述区域范围内离散三维滑坡源区的确定性分析方法

IF 3.5 2区 地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY
Nicolas W. Mathews, Ben A. Leshchinsky, Benjamin B. Mirus, Michael J. Olsen, Adam M. Booth
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引用次数: 0

摘要

浅层滑坡危害的区域尺度特征对于减少其对社会的破坏性影响非常重要。这些灾害的特征通常包括:(a) 使用易发性地图确定其位置和可能性;(b) 使用地貌比例法则确定滑坡规模和频率;(c) 使用引发阈值确定引发滑坡所需的扰动程度。通常情况下,通过使用记录以前滑坡地点和触发条件的清单来实现这一目标。在缺乏全面的滑坡清单的情况下,可以使用基于物理学的斜坡稳定性模型来估算滑坡发生的可能性,并提供一系列环境和触发条件下滑坡特征的合理分布。然而,这些模型有时在捕捉与离散三维(3D)滑坡力学相关的关键机制方面能力有限,同时也不具备大范围应用所需的计算效率。在本研究中,开发了 RegionGrow3D(RG3D)模型,利用基于极限平衡(LE)的三维边坡稳定性建模,在区域范围内(≥1,000 平方公里)广泛模拟滑坡的面积、体积和位置。此外,RG3D 还被纳入一个易损性框架,该框架使用土壤剪切强度分布及其相关概率来量化滑坡的不确定性,这些概率是使用基于三维极限平衡的滑坡鉴证法从已清查的滑坡中反向计算得出的。该框架用于评估与剪切强度、降雨情景和前土壤湿度相关的不确定性对美国俄勒冈海岸山脉一大片区域潜在滑坡和降雨阈值的影响。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。

RegionGrow3D: A Deterministic Analysis for Characterizing Discrete Three-Dimensional Landslide Source Areas on a Regional Scale

RegionGrow3D: A Deterministic Analysis for Characterizing Discrete Three-Dimensional Landslide Source Areas on a Regional Scale

Regional-scale characterization of shallow landslide hazards is important for reducing their destructive impact on society. These hazards are commonly characterized by (a) their location and likelihood using susceptibility maps, (b) landslide size and frequency using geomorphic scaling laws, and (c) the magnitude of disturbance required to cause landslides using initiation thresholds. Typically, this is accomplished through the use of inventories documenting the locations and triggering conditions of previous landslides. In the absence of comprehensive landslide inventories, physics-based slope stability models can be used to estimate landslide initiation potential and provide plausible distributions of landslide characteristics for a range of environmental and forcing conditions. However, these models are sometimes limited in their ability to capture key mechanisms tied to discrete three-dimensional (3D) landslide mechanics while possessing the computational efficiency required for broad-scale application. In this study, the RegionGrow3D (RG3D) model is developed to broadly simulate the area, volume, and location of landslides on a regional scale (≥1,000 km2) using 3D, limit-equilibrium (LE)-based slope stability modeling. Furthermore, RG3D is incorporated into a susceptibility framework that quantifies landsliding uncertainty using a distribution of soil shear strengths and their associated probabilities, back-calculated from inventoried landslides using 3D LE-based landslide forensics. This framework is used to evaluate the influence of uncertainty tied to shear strength, rainfall scenarios, and antecedent soil moisture on potential landsliding and rainfall thresholds over a large region of the Oregon Coast Range, USA.

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来源期刊
Journal of Geophysical Research: Earth Surface
Journal of Geophysical Research: Earth Surface Earth and Planetary Sciences-Earth-Surface Processes
CiteScore
6.30
自引率
10.30%
发文量
162
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