{"title":"轨道交通中断、交通世代和适应:香港的准实验证据","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.trd.2024.104381","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Despite a recent surge in urban rail service disruptions, rigorous impact studies are rare and the empirical literature presents mixed or highly underestimated results. In response, we examine the impacts of disrupted urban rail service on vehicle use in Hong Kong, using air quality as a proxy for the latter. We find that, on average, nitrogen oxides concentrations near an inactive metro station increased by 7.8% after the protests. This result translates into an 8.4% increase in on-road traffic intensity, given the pollution-traffic elasticity of 0.93. During rush hours, metro-station shutdowns further increased traffic intensity by ≤31.9%, suggesting an imminent need for a rail-to-road mode shift among commuters. The magnitude of the effects, however, tends to decline over time, with a 1% decline for each hour past the occurrence of a given shutdown event. This declining trend seems to reflect increased adaptation over time at both network and individual levels.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":23277,"journal":{"name":"Transportation Research Part D-transport and Environment","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":7.3000,"publicationDate":"2024-08-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Rail transit disruptions, traffic generations, and adaptations: Quasi-experimental evidence from Hong Kong\",\"authors\":\"\",\"doi\":\"10.1016/j.trd.2024.104381\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<div><p>Despite a recent surge in urban rail service disruptions, rigorous impact studies are rare and the empirical literature presents mixed or highly underestimated results. In response, we examine the impacts of disrupted urban rail service on vehicle use in Hong Kong, using air quality as a proxy for the latter. We find that, on average, nitrogen oxides concentrations near an inactive metro station increased by 7.8% after the protests. This result translates into an 8.4% increase in on-road traffic intensity, given the pollution-traffic elasticity of 0.93. During rush hours, metro-station shutdowns further increased traffic intensity by ≤31.9%, suggesting an imminent need for a rail-to-road mode shift among commuters. The magnitude of the effects, however, tends to decline over time, with a 1% decline for each hour past the occurrence of a given shutdown event. This declining trend seems to reflect increased adaptation over time at both network and individual levels.</p></div>\",\"PeriodicalId\":23277,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Transportation Research Part D-transport and Environment\",\"volume\":null,\"pages\":null},\"PeriodicalIF\":7.3000,\"publicationDate\":\"2024-08-30\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Transportation Research Part D-transport and Environment\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"5\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1361920924003389\",\"RegionNum\":1,\"RegionCategory\":\"工程技术\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q1\",\"JCRName\":\"ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Transportation Research Part D-transport and Environment","FirstCategoryId":"5","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1361920924003389","RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES","Score":null,"Total":0}
Rail transit disruptions, traffic generations, and adaptations: Quasi-experimental evidence from Hong Kong
Despite a recent surge in urban rail service disruptions, rigorous impact studies are rare and the empirical literature presents mixed or highly underestimated results. In response, we examine the impacts of disrupted urban rail service on vehicle use in Hong Kong, using air quality as a proxy for the latter. We find that, on average, nitrogen oxides concentrations near an inactive metro station increased by 7.8% after the protests. This result translates into an 8.4% increase in on-road traffic intensity, given the pollution-traffic elasticity of 0.93. During rush hours, metro-station shutdowns further increased traffic intensity by ≤31.9%, suggesting an imminent need for a rail-to-road mode shift among commuters. The magnitude of the effects, however, tends to decline over time, with a 1% decline for each hour past the occurrence of a given shutdown event. This declining trend seems to reflect increased adaptation over time at both network and individual levels.
期刊介绍:
Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment focuses on original research exploring the environmental impacts of transportation, policy responses to these impacts, and their implications for transportation system design, planning, and management. The journal comprehensively covers the interaction between transportation and the environment, ranging from local effects on specific geographical areas to global implications such as natural resource depletion and atmospheric pollution.
We welcome research papers across all transportation modes, including maritime, air, and land transportation, assessing their environmental impacts broadly. Papers addressing both mobile aspects and transportation infrastructure are considered. The journal prioritizes empirical findings and policy responses of regulatory, planning, technical, or fiscal nature. Articles are policy-driven, accessible, and applicable to readers from diverse disciplines, emphasizing relevance and practicality. We encourage interdisciplinary submissions and welcome contributions from economically developing and advanced countries alike, reflecting our international orientation.