Thickness of Pluto's Ice Shell from elastic deformation of the Sputnik Planitia forebulge: Response to infill load or vestige of impact event?

Load on a planet's lithosphere can often form a well-defined flexural bulge, including a permanent (or long-lasting) forebulge, which preserves important information on the force of the load and properties of the lithosphere itself. On Pluto, aspects of the outer ice shell (i.e. the lithosphere) have become increasingly ascertainable, as recent work using data from the New Horizons space probe has revealed evidence of ongoing surface cryovolcanism and a subsurface water ocean. However, the precise thickness and elasticity of the ice shell has yet to be fully established. Sputnik Planitia, one of the largest surface features on Pluto, is an elliptical depression that may have formed during an impact event and subsequently infilled with nitrogen ice. It is characterized by a smooth, radially asymmetrical, forebulge which has been retained in places along the border of the depression. However, the proportion of influence on the formation of the forebulge between the impact load and the load induced by the infill remains unknown. Here, we report results from the analysis of the forebulge of Sputnik Planitia to explore the characteristics of the ice shell and the nitrogen infill. By utilizing multiple Converging Monte Carlo (CMC) simulations within the material and environmental parameters of Pluto, the best fit flexure surface was able to replicate the topography of the flexure (including the forebulge) from ten profiles. Results show an ice shell thickness ranging from 65 to 90 km, with an average of 78 km. The density of the ice shell is 50 kg/m³ less than the density of the subsurface water ocean. We demonstrate that if the formation of the forebulge occurs solely from the nitrogen ice infill load, the infill must reach >18 km of thickness. Furthermore, a southeast-northwest central load symmetry may have been produced by an impacting object with a southeast-northwest trajectory.