{"title":"模拟未来气候变化对澳大利亚东南部混合农业系统的影响","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.eja.2024.127328","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Mixed farming systems play a crucial role in Australian agriculture, offering economic, social, and environmental advantages. However, these systems are vulnerable to climate change, characterized by rising temperatures and increased rainfall variability. We utilized the pre-calibrated AusFarm model, forced with daily climate data downscaled from 27 Global Climate Models, to simulate how climate change would affect mixed-farming systems at two sites, Condobolin and Wagga Wagga located in southeastern Australia. The results indicated that climate change had diverse effects on crop yields. The simulated yield for some crops, such as canola, was projected to decrease, while others, like field peas, were expected to increase. Elevated atmospheric CO<sub>2</sub> levels were anticipated to boost pasture production, but the overall outcome would depend on how these changes interact with rising temperatures and changed rainfall patterns. The increase in pastures was associated with higher live sheep weights and increased fleece growth, with a more significant impact observed at the drier Condobolin site. Furthermore, we found that the gross margin was projected to rise at both sites, with Condobolin experiencing more variability under the influence of climate change. These modelling findings highlight the capacity of mixed-farming systems, which integrate both crops and livestock, to uphold or even improve farm profitability in the context of impending climate change. This underscores the crucial significance of mixed-farming systems in southeastern Australia.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":51045,"journal":{"name":"European Journal of Agronomy","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":4.5000,"publicationDate":"2024-08-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Modelling the impacts of future climate change on mixed farming system in southeastern Australia\",\"authors\":\"\",\"doi\":\"10.1016/j.eja.2024.127328\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<div><p>Mixed farming systems play a crucial role in Australian agriculture, offering economic, social, and environmental advantages. However, these systems are vulnerable to climate change, characterized by rising temperatures and increased rainfall variability. We utilized the pre-calibrated AusFarm model, forced with daily climate data downscaled from 27 Global Climate Models, to simulate how climate change would affect mixed-farming systems at two sites, Condobolin and Wagga Wagga located in southeastern Australia. The results indicated that climate change had diverse effects on crop yields. The simulated yield for some crops, such as canola, was projected to decrease, while others, like field peas, were expected to increase. Elevated atmospheric CO<sub>2</sub> levels were anticipated to boost pasture production, but the overall outcome would depend on how these changes interact with rising temperatures and changed rainfall patterns. The increase in pastures was associated with higher live sheep weights and increased fleece growth, with a more significant impact observed at the drier Condobolin site. Furthermore, we found that the gross margin was projected to rise at both sites, with Condobolin experiencing more variability under the influence of climate change. These modelling findings highlight the capacity of mixed-farming systems, which integrate both crops and livestock, to uphold or even improve farm profitability in the context of impending climate change. This underscores the crucial significance of mixed-farming systems in southeastern Australia.</p></div>\",\"PeriodicalId\":51045,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"European Journal of Agronomy\",\"volume\":null,\"pages\":null},\"PeriodicalIF\":4.5000,\"publicationDate\":\"2024-08-29\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"European Journal of Agronomy\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"97\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1161030124002491\",\"RegionNum\":1,\"RegionCategory\":\"农林科学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q1\",\"JCRName\":\"AGRONOMY\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"European Journal of Agronomy","FirstCategoryId":"97","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1161030124002491","RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"AGRONOMY","Score":null,"Total":0}
Modelling the impacts of future climate change on mixed farming system in southeastern Australia
Mixed farming systems play a crucial role in Australian agriculture, offering economic, social, and environmental advantages. However, these systems are vulnerable to climate change, characterized by rising temperatures and increased rainfall variability. We utilized the pre-calibrated AusFarm model, forced with daily climate data downscaled from 27 Global Climate Models, to simulate how climate change would affect mixed-farming systems at two sites, Condobolin and Wagga Wagga located in southeastern Australia. The results indicated that climate change had diverse effects on crop yields. The simulated yield for some crops, such as canola, was projected to decrease, while others, like field peas, were expected to increase. Elevated atmospheric CO2 levels were anticipated to boost pasture production, but the overall outcome would depend on how these changes interact with rising temperatures and changed rainfall patterns. The increase in pastures was associated with higher live sheep weights and increased fleece growth, with a more significant impact observed at the drier Condobolin site. Furthermore, we found that the gross margin was projected to rise at both sites, with Condobolin experiencing more variability under the influence of climate change. These modelling findings highlight the capacity of mixed-farming systems, which integrate both crops and livestock, to uphold or even improve farm profitability in the context of impending climate change. This underscores the crucial significance of mixed-farming systems in southeastern Australia.
期刊介绍:
The European Journal of Agronomy, the official journal of the European Society for Agronomy, publishes original research papers reporting experimental and theoretical contributions to field-based agronomy and crop science. The journal will consider research at the field level for agricultural, horticultural and tree crops, that uses comprehensive and explanatory approaches. The EJA covers the following topics:
crop physiology
crop production and management including irrigation, fertilization and soil management
agroclimatology and modelling
plant-soil relationships
crop quality and post-harvest physiology
farming and cropping systems
agroecosystems and the environment
crop-weed interactions and management
organic farming
horticultural crops
papers from the European Society for Agronomy bi-annual meetings
In determining the suitability of submitted articles for publication, particular scrutiny is placed on the degree of novelty and significance of the research and the extent to which it adds to existing knowledge in agronomy.