气候变化预计将严重影响伊比利亚半岛的原产地保护橄榄种植区

IF 6.1 1区 农林科学 Q1 AGRICULTURE, MULTIDISCIPLINARY
Inês Guise , Bruno Silva , Frederico Mestre , José Muñoz-Rojas , Maria F. Duarte , José M. Herrera
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引用次数: 0

摘要

背景伊比利亚半岛是世界上最大的橄榄(Olea europaea subsp.此外,它还包括一系列拥有原产地名称保护(PDO)的橄榄产区,旨在保护和促进与独特环境特征相关的农产品的独特地理地位。尽管橄榄产业具有重要的经济意义,但人们对气候变化对橄榄产区环境适宜性和环境独特性的影响仍知之甚少。首先,评估在 2050 年两种气候变化情景下,伊比利亚半岛橄榄产区内外环境适宜性空间分布模式的变化。第二,评估 PDO 在应对新的气候制度时保持其独特环境特征的能力。我们采用生态位建模方法,首先对橄榄种植环境适宜性的环境相关因素进行建模,其次预测其在 PDO 内外的相对变化。橄榄种植环境适宜性的估计变化被计算为当前和每种气候变化情景之间的百分比变化。此外,还采用了随机森林建模方法,首先对 PDO 的环境相关因素进行建模,其次根据属于特定 PDO 的概率对其环境独特性进行评估。结果和结论我们的研究结果表明,气候导致环境适宜性范围向北纬度显著转移,导致橄榄种植区内外的南纬度地区环境适宜性普遍降低。我们的研究表明,气候变化对伊比利亚半岛橄榄种植的影响可能比以前想象的要大。我们建议利用现有的与气候相关的基因型和表型多样性(或称气候多样性),使欧罗巴橄榄作物适应不断变化的气候,进而使橄榄种植者在未来的许多年里继续在现有地点种植橄榄。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。

Climate change is expected to severely impact Protected Designation of Origin olive growing regions over the Iberian Peninsula

Climate change is expected to severely impact Protected Designation of Origin olive growing regions over the Iberian Peninsula

CONTEXT

The Iberian Peninsula is the world's largest olive (Olea europaea subsp. europaea L.) producing region due to its high environmental suitability for olive growing, consistently accounting for about half of the global share. Moreover, it includes a range of olive-producing regions with Protected Designation of Origin (PDO), aimed to safeguard and promote the distinctive geographical status of agricultural products linked to unique environmental characteristics. Despite the olive industry's economic importance, the impact of climate change on the environmental suitability and the environmental distinctiveness of olive-producing regions is still far from being understood.

OBJECTIVE

The objective of our work was twofold. First, to evaluate changes in the spatial distribution patterns of environmental suitability for olive growing both within and outside PDOs across the Iberian Peninsula under two climate change scenarios within a 2050 time horizon. Second, to evaluate the ability of PDOs to retain their distinctive environmental characteristics in response to new climate regimes.

METHODS

The study area was framed using 1 × 1 km square plots. We used an Ecological Niche Modelling approach, firstly, to model the environmental correlates of environmental suitability for olive growing and, secondly, to forecast their relative change within and outside PDOs. The estimated change in environmental suitability for olive growing was calculated as the percentage variation between the present and each climate change scenario. Additionally, a Random Forests Modelling approach was employed, firstly, to model the environmental correlates of PDOs and, secondly, to evaluate their environmental distinctiveness based on the probability of belonging to a given PDO. The estimated change in environmental distinctiveness of PDOs was calculated as the percentage variation between present and future in the probability of belonging to the same PDO.

RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS

Our results suggest significant climate-driven range shifts of environmental suitability toward northern latitudes, leading to widespread reductions in southern latitudes both within and outside PDO olive-growing regions. Climate change will also severely affect the idiosyncratic environmental envelope of most PDOs, leading to the loss of their environmental distinctiveness.

SIGNIFICANCE

Our study demonstrates that climate change's impact on olive growing in the Iberian Peninsula might be stronger than previously thought. We propose exploiting the existing genotypic and phenotypic diversity related to climate - or climate diversity - as a way to adapt O. europaea crops to shifting climates and, in turn, allow olive growers to continue to grow in their current location for many years to come.

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来源期刊
Agricultural Systems
Agricultural Systems 农林科学-农业综合
CiteScore
13.30
自引率
7.60%
发文量
174
审稿时长
30 days
期刊介绍: Agricultural Systems is an international journal that deals with interactions - among the components of agricultural systems, among hierarchical levels of agricultural systems, between agricultural and other land use systems, and between agricultural systems and their natural, social and economic environments. The scope includes the development and application of systems analysis methodologies in the following areas: Systems approaches in the sustainable intensification of agriculture; pathways for sustainable intensification; crop-livestock integration; farm-level resource allocation; quantification of benefits and trade-offs at farm to landscape levels; integrative, participatory and dynamic modelling approaches for qualitative and quantitative assessments of agricultural systems and decision making; The interactions between agricultural and non-agricultural landscapes; the multiple services of agricultural systems; food security and the environment; Global change and adaptation science; transformational adaptations as driven by changes in climate, policy, values and attitudes influencing the design of farming systems; Development and application of farming systems design tools and methods for impact, scenario and case study analysis; managing the complexities of dynamic agricultural systems; innovation systems and multi stakeholder arrangements that support or promote change and (or) inform policy decisions.
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