煤炭淘汰对中国就业的连锁反应:从采矿业到煤炭消费行业

IF 10.2 2区 经济学 0 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES
Niu Niu , Junhua Ma , Bin Zhang , Changqing Xu , Zhaohua Wang
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引用次数: 0

摘要

中国以坚定不移地淘汰煤炭为标志的严格的去碳化进程对整个煤炭产业链的就业结构产生了重大的连锁反应。本研究采用全球变化评估模型和投入产出模型相结合的综合方法,系统地量化了对就业的影响,显示采矿业损失了 160 万个工作岗位,整个产业链损失了 820 万个工作岗位。与此同时,劳动力向可再生领域转移导致就业增加了 18.5%,相当于从 2017 年到 2020 年创造了 50.8 万个新职位。预测表明,在碳中和情景下,到 2060 年,可再生能源措施可解决 25% 的精准就业缺口。然而,煤炭行业预计将失去 2000 多万个工作岗位,这表明需要 2.3 万亿元的补偿基金。本研究强调,有必要采取政策干预措施,通过全面的再培训计划和战略投资来促进劳动力转型。促进经济多元化和清洁煤炭技术可以提高资源利用率,创造新的就业机会。此外,将废弃煤矿重新利用为储能设施或可再生能源基地,可以防止资产搁浅并创造就业机会。这些发现为应对能源转型带来的社会经济挑战提供了一个强有力的框架,为其他以可持续发展为目标的煤炭依赖型国家提供了重要启示。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Ripple effects of coal phaseout on employment in China: From mining to coal consumption sectors

China's stringent decarbonisation, marked by an uncompromising coal phaseout, has induced significant ripple effects across the coal industry chain's employment structure. By utilising a composite methodology that integrates the Global Change Assessment Model and Input‒Output Model, this study systematically quantifies the impact on employment, revealing a loss of 1.6 million jobs in mining and 8.2 million in the entire chain. Concurrently, a labour shift to the renewable sector has resulted in an 18.5% increase in employment, equivalent to creating 508,000 new positions from 2017 to 2020. Projections suggest that renewable energy initiatives could address 25% of the employment gap for precision by 2060 under carbon neutrality scenarios. Nonetheless, the coal sector is expected to lose more than 20 million jobs, indicating the need for a 2.3 trillion-yuan compensation fund. This study highlights the need for policy interventions to facilitate labour transitions through comprehensive retraining programs and strategic investments. Promoting economic diversification and clean coal technologies can improve resource utilization and create new jobs. Additionally, repurposing abandoned coal mines into energy storage facilities or renewable energy sites can prevent stranded assets and generate employment. These findings provide a robust framework for addressing the socioeconomic challenges of energy transitions, offering critical insights for other coal-dependent countries aiming for sustainable development.

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来源期刊
Resources Policy
Resources Policy ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES-
CiteScore
13.40
自引率
23.50%
发文量
602
审稿时长
69 days
期刊介绍: Resources Policy is an international journal focused on the economics and policy aspects of mineral and fossil fuel extraction, production, and utilization. It targets individuals in academia, government, and industry. The journal seeks original research submissions analyzing public policy, economics, social science, geography, and finance in the fields of mining, non-fuel minerals, energy minerals, fossil fuels, and metals. Mineral economics topics covered include mineral market analysis, price analysis, project evaluation, mining and sustainable development, mineral resource rents, resource curse, mineral wealth and corruption, mineral taxation and regulation, strategic minerals and their supply, and the impact of mineral development on local communities and indigenous populations. The journal specifically excludes papers with agriculture, forestry, or fisheries as their primary focus.
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