{"title":"煤炭淘汰对中国就业的连锁反应:从采矿业到煤炭消费行业","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.resourpol.2024.105290","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>China's stringent decarbonisation, marked by an uncompromising coal phaseout, has induced significant ripple effects across the coal industry chain's employment structure. By utilising a composite methodology that integrates the Global Change Assessment Model and Input‒Output Model, this study systematically quantifies the impact on employment, revealing a loss of 1.6 million jobs in mining and 8.2 million in the entire chain. Concurrently, a labour shift to the renewable sector has resulted in an 18.5% increase in employment, equivalent to creating 508,000 new positions from 2017 to 2020. Projections suggest that renewable energy initiatives could address 25% of the employment gap for precision by 2060 under carbon neutrality scenarios. Nonetheless, the coal sector is expected to lose more than 20 million jobs, indicating the need for a 2.3 trillion-yuan compensation fund. This study highlights the need for policy interventions to facilitate labour transitions through comprehensive retraining programs and strategic investments. Promoting economic diversification and clean coal technologies can improve resource utilization and create new jobs. Additionally, repurposing abandoned coal mines into energy storage facilities or renewable energy sites can prevent stranded assets and generate employment. These findings provide a robust framework for addressing the socioeconomic challenges of energy transitions, offering critical insights for other coal-dependent countries aiming for sustainable development.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":20970,"journal":{"name":"Resources Policy","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":10.2000,"publicationDate":"2024-08-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Ripple effects of coal phaseout on employment in China: From mining to coal consumption sectors\",\"authors\":\"\",\"doi\":\"10.1016/j.resourpol.2024.105290\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<div><p>China's stringent decarbonisation, marked by an uncompromising coal phaseout, has induced significant ripple effects across the coal industry chain's employment structure. By utilising a composite methodology that integrates the Global Change Assessment Model and Input‒Output Model, this study systematically quantifies the impact on employment, revealing a loss of 1.6 million jobs in mining and 8.2 million in the entire chain. Concurrently, a labour shift to the renewable sector has resulted in an 18.5% increase in employment, equivalent to creating 508,000 new positions from 2017 to 2020. Projections suggest that renewable energy initiatives could address 25% of the employment gap for precision by 2060 under carbon neutrality scenarios. Nonetheless, the coal sector is expected to lose more than 20 million jobs, indicating the need for a 2.3 trillion-yuan compensation fund. This study highlights the need for policy interventions to facilitate labour transitions through comprehensive retraining programs and strategic investments. Promoting economic diversification and clean coal technologies can improve resource utilization and create new jobs. Additionally, repurposing abandoned coal mines into energy storage facilities or renewable energy sites can prevent stranded assets and generate employment. These findings provide a robust framework for addressing the socioeconomic challenges of energy transitions, offering critical insights for other coal-dependent countries aiming for sustainable development.</p></div>\",\"PeriodicalId\":20970,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Resources Policy\",\"volume\":null,\"pages\":null},\"PeriodicalIF\":10.2000,\"publicationDate\":\"2024-08-31\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Resources Policy\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"96\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301420724006573\",\"RegionNum\":2,\"RegionCategory\":\"经济学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"0\",\"JCRName\":\"ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Resources Policy","FirstCategoryId":"96","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301420724006573","RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"0","JCRName":"ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES","Score":null,"Total":0}
Ripple effects of coal phaseout on employment in China: From mining to coal consumption sectors
China's stringent decarbonisation, marked by an uncompromising coal phaseout, has induced significant ripple effects across the coal industry chain's employment structure. By utilising a composite methodology that integrates the Global Change Assessment Model and Input‒Output Model, this study systematically quantifies the impact on employment, revealing a loss of 1.6 million jobs in mining and 8.2 million in the entire chain. Concurrently, a labour shift to the renewable sector has resulted in an 18.5% increase in employment, equivalent to creating 508,000 new positions from 2017 to 2020. Projections suggest that renewable energy initiatives could address 25% of the employment gap for precision by 2060 under carbon neutrality scenarios. Nonetheless, the coal sector is expected to lose more than 20 million jobs, indicating the need for a 2.3 trillion-yuan compensation fund. This study highlights the need for policy interventions to facilitate labour transitions through comprehensive retraining programs and strategic investments. Promoting economic diversification and clean coal technologies can improve resource utilization and create new jobs. Additionally, repurposing abandoned coal mines into energy storage facilities or renewable energy sites can prevent stranded assets and generate employment. These findings provide a robust framework for addressing the socioeconomic challenges of energy transitions, offering critical insights for other coal-dependent countries aiming for sustainable development.
期刊介绍:
Resources Policy is an international journal focused on the economics and policy aspects of mineral and fossil fuel extraction, production, and utilization. It targets individuals in academia, government, and industry. The journal seeks original research submissions analyzing public policy, economics, social science, geography, and finance in the fields of mining, non-fuel minerals, energy minerals, fossil fuels, and metals. Mineral economics topics covered include mineral market analysis, price analysis, project evaluation, mining and sustainable development, mineral resource rents, resource curse, mineral wealth and corruption, mineral taxation and regulation, strategic minerals and their supply, and the impact of mineral development on local communities and indigenous populations. The journal specifically excludes papers with agriculture, forestry, or fisheries as their primary focus.