Walker circulation strengthening driven by sea surface temperature changes outside the tropics

The Pacific Walker circulation—the tropical Pacific zonal overturning circulation of the atmosphere—and the associated sea surface temperature distribution in the tropical Pacific significantly impact global climate. However, climate model historical simulations cannot capture the observed Walker circulation enhancement since around 1980. Although a number of mechanisms have been proposed to explain the observed change, quantitative discussion and clues for reconciling the model-observation discrepancy have not yet been settled. Here we show that the Walker circulation strengthening between 1980 and 2020 can be quantitatively explained by the remote influence of subtropical and extratropical sea surface temperature changes. This conclusion is obtained from climate model pacemaker experiments in which sea surface temperature anomalies outside the tropics are restored towards observations. Influence from the southeastern Pacific, which cools the eastern tropical Pacific, is especially crucial for the Walker circulation strengthening. This equatorward influence occurs mostly through the atmosphere and its thermal coupling with the ocean. We further show that current generation climate models have biases in southeastern Pacific surface temperature changes, which may cause the failure in reproducing the Walker circulation trend. Our results suggest that improved representation of air–sea coupling in this region could enable better projections of future climate. Subtropical and extratropical sea surface temperature changes can explain recent observed Walker circulation strengthening, according to climate model experiments.