Multiscale habitat suitability modeling for a threatened raptor offers insight into ecological model transferability

Habitat fragmentation and loss are major threats to species conservation worldwide. Studying species-habitat relationships is a crucial first step toward understanding species habitat requirements, which is necessary for conservation and management planning. However, some species inhabit a range of habitat types, potentially making the use of range-wide habitat models inappropriate due to non-stationarity in species-habitat preferences. The Mexican spotted owl (Strix occidentalis lucida) (MSO) is a species that inhabits both forests and rocky canyonlands, two habitats with large differences in environmental conditions. It is unclear whether the species uses habitat differently in these two habitat types or if previously-built habitat models for forest-dwelling owls can be used to understand MSO habitat use in rocky canyonlands. To explore this, we developed the first scale-optimized habitat suitability model for this subspecies of spotted owl in rocky canyonlands using an ensemble framework. We then compared our results with a previously-built habitat model for MSO in forested areas. In the rocky canyonland model, slope (800 m scale), cumulative degree days (1200 m scale), insolation (1000 m scale), and monsoon precipitation (100 m scale) were the most important environmental covariates. In contrast, in the forest model, percent canopy cover (100 m scale), percent mixed-conifer (5000 m scale), and slope (500 m scale) were the most important environmental covariates. The rocky canyonland model performed well, while the forest model performed poorly when projected to rocky canyonlands and predicted low suitability across the entire study area, including areas with known nesting locations. These results support the non-stationarity in habitat use for MSOs between rocky canyonland and forest habitats. Hence, when transferring habitat suitability models from one region to another, it is necessary to evaluate the transferability of the model by accounting for non-stationarity in species-habitat preferences.