{"title":"风险决策中对比效应和同化效应的相对重要性","authors":"Eden Heilprin, Ido Erev","doi":"10.1002/bdm.2408","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p>Past research on decisions under risk has documented two contradictory context effects: the contrast effect, where risk preferences in “target” tasks diverge from those in previous “surrounding” tasks, and the assimilation effect that implies the opposite bias. We present four web experiments (three preregistered) that clarify the conditions determining the relative prominence of these opposing effects. Our experiments focus on choice patterns in “target” tasks where participants choose between the status quo and a risky mixed gamble with an expected value of zero. Study 1 examines the impact of surroundings that differ from the target task with respect to the expected benefit from risk-taking. The findings reveal a strong contrast effect: <i>Decreasing</i> the attractiveness of risk-taking in the surrounding tasks <i>increased</i> the risk-taking rate in the target tasks from 53.2% to 79.7%. Study 2 investigates the impact of surroundings that differ in the payoff domain. The findings indicate a strong assimilation effect: <i>Decreasing</i> the attractiveness of risk-taking in the surrounding tasks <i>decreased</i> the risk-taking rate in the target tasks from 74.7% to 36.5%. Additionally, the results revealed unpredicted and robust reversed loss aversion patterns which Studies 3 and 4 further clarify. Our findings (1) suggest that the isolated within-task computations assumed by leading descriptive models overlook substantial contextual considerations, (2) clarify the factors determining the impact of the contrast and assimilation effects in decisions under risk, and (3) provide a theoretical framework for making useful predictions in various scenarios.</p>","PeriodicalId":48112,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Behavioral Decision Making","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.8000,"publicationDate":"2024-08-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/bdm.2408","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"The Relative Importance of the Contrast and Assimilation Effects in Decisions Under Risk\",\"authors\":\"Eden Heilprin, Ido Erev\",\"doi\":\"10.1002/bdm.2408\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<p>Past research on decisions under risk has documented two contradictory context effects: the contrast effect, where risk preferences in “target” tasks diverge from those in previous “surrounding” tasks, and the assimilation effect that implies the opposite bias. We present four web experiments (three preregistered) that clarify the conditions determining the relative prominence of these opposing effects. Our experiments focus on choice patterns in “target” tasks where participants choose between the status quo and a risky mixed gamble with an expected value of zero. Study 1 examines the impact of surroundings that differ from the target task with respect to the expected benefit from risk-taking. The findings reveal a strong contrast effect: <i>Decreasing</i> the attractiveness of risk-taking in the surrounding tasks <i>increased</i> the risk-taking rate in the target tasks from 53.2% to 79.7%. Study 2 investigates the impact of surroundings that differ in the payoff domain. The findings indicate a strong assimilation effect: <i>Decreasing</i> the attractiveness of risk-taking in the surrounding tasks <i>decreased</i> the risk-taking rate in the target tasks from 74.7% to 36.5%. Additionally, the results revealed unpredicted and robust reversed loss aversion patterns which Studies 3 and 4 further clarify. Our findings (1) suggest that the isolated within-task computations assumed by leading descriptive models overlook substantial contextual considerations, (2) clarify the factors determining the impact of the contrast and assimilation effects in decisions under risk, and (3) provide a theoretical framework for making useful predictions in various scenarios.</p>\",\"PeriodicalId\":48112,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Journal of Behavioral Decision Making\",\"volume\":null,\"pages\":null},\"PeriodicalIF\":1.8000,\"publicationDate\":\"2024-08-26\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/bdm.2408\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Journal of Behavioral Decision Making\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"102\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/bdm.2408\",\"RegionNum\":3,\"RegionCategory\":\"心理学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q3\",\"JCRName\":\"PSYCHOLOGY, APPLIED\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Journal of Behavioral Decision Making","FirstCategoryId":"102","ListUrlMain":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/bdm.2408","RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"心理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q3","JCRName":"PSYCHOLOGY, APPLIED","Score":null,"Total":0}
The Relative Importance of the Contrast and Assimilation Effects in Decisions Under Risk
Past research on decisions under risk has documented two contradictory context effects: the contrast effect, where risk preferences in “target” tasks diverge from those in previous “surrounding” tasks, and the assimilation effect that implies the opposite bias. We present four web experiments (three preregistered) that clarify the conditions determining the relative prominence of these opposing effects. Our experiments focus on choice patterns in “target” tasks where participants choose between the status quo and a risky mixed gamble with an expected value of zero. Study 1 examines the impact of surroundings that differ from the target task with respect to the expected benefit from risk-taking. The findings reveal a strong contrast effect: Decreasing the attractiveness of risk-taking in the surrounding tasks increased the risk-taking rate in the target tasks from 53.2% to 79.7%. Study 2 investigates the impact of surroundings that differ in the payoff domain. The findings indicate a strong assimilation effect: Decreasing the attractiveness of risk-taking in the surrounding tasks decreased the risk-taking rate in the target tasks from 74.7% to 36.5%. Additionally, the results revealed unpredicted and robust reversed loss aversion patterns which Studies 3 and 4 further clarify. Our findings (1) suggest that the isolated within-task computations assumed by leading descriptive models overlook substantial contextual considerations, (2) clarify the factors determining the impact of the contrast and assimilation effects in decisions under risk, and (3) provide a theoretical framework for making useful predictions in various scenarios.
期刊介绍:
The Journal of Behavioral Decision Making is a multidisciplinary journal with a broad base of content and style. It publishes original empirical reports, critical review papers, theoretical analyses and methodological contributions. The Journal also features book, software and decision aiding technique reviews, abstracts of important articles published elsewhere and teaching suggestions. The objective of the Journal is to present and stimulate behavioral research on decision making and to provide a forum for the evaluation of complementary, contrasting and conflicting perspectives. These perspectives include psychology, management science, sociology, political science and economics. Studies of behavioral decision making in naturalistic and applied settings are encouraged.