管理未来北冰洋海洋生物资源的关键不确定性和建模需求

IF 7.3 1区 地球科学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
Earths Future Pub Date : 2024-08-25 DOI:10.1029/2023EF004393
Julia G. Mason, Andrea Bryndum-Buchholz, Juliano Palacios-Abrantes, Renuka Badhe, Isabella Morgante, Daniele Bianchi, Julia L. Blanchard, Jason D. Everett, Cheryl S. Harrison, Ryan F. Heneghan, Camilla Novaglio, Colleen M. Petrik
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引用次数: 0

摘要

在迅速变暖的北冰洋,由于冰层融化和物种分布向极地转移,新出现的捕鱼活动对跨界管理提出了挑战,需要积极主动的治理。2021 年北极公海暂停商业捕鱼为提高科学认识提供了 16 年的时间。鉴于存在巨大的知识差距,确定不确定性最高的领域是关键的第一步。预测未来鱼类分布的海洋生态系统模型组合可为未来北极渔业管理提供信息,但全球模型组合尚未对北极的具体变化进行研究。我们利用两个地球系统模型(ESM)在两种共享社会经济路径(SSP1-2.6 和 SSP5-8.5)下驱动的渔业和海洋生态系统相互比较项目集合,来说明北冰洋在休渔期生物量预测的现状和不确定性。这些模式普遍预测北冰洋北部生态系统的生物量将增加,而南部生态系统的生物量将减少,但在大多数情况下,模式内部的巨大差异超过了预测平均值。两个 ESM 对主要环境驱动因素呈现出相反的趋势。因此,这些预测目前还不足以为政策行动提供依据。迫切需要投资于持续监测和提高建模能力,特别是海冰动态建模能力。同时,有必要制定在持续的不确定性下做出预防性决策的框架。我们的结论是,研究人员应该对不确定性保持透明,不是将这些模型预测作为科学 "答案 "的来源,而是作为合理的、与政策相关的问题的界限,以评估权衡和降低风险。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。

Key Uncertainties and Modeling Needs for Managing Living Marine Resources in the Future Arctic Ocean

Key Uncertainties and Modeling Needs for Managing Living Marine Resources in the Future Arctic Ocean

Emerging fishing activity due to melting ice and poleward species distribution shifts in the rapidly-warming Arctic Ocean challenges transboundary management and requires proactive governance. A 2021 moratorium on commercial fishing in the Arctic high seas provides a 16-year runway for improved scientific understanding. Given substantial knowledge gaps, characterizing areas of highest uncertainty is a key first step. Marine ecosystem model ensembles that project future fish distributions could inform management of future Arctic fisheries, but Arctic-specific variation has not yet been examined for global ensembles. We use the Fisheries and Marine Ecosystem Intercomparison Project ensemble driven by two Earth System Models (ESMs) under two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5) to illustrate the current state of and uncertainty among biomass projections for the Arctic Ocean over the duration of the moratorium. The models generally project biomass increases in more northern Arctic ecosystems and decreases in southern ecosystems, but wide intra-model variation exceeds projection means in most cases. The two ESMs show opposite trends for the main environmental drivers. Therefore, these projections are currently insufficient to inform policy actions. Investment in sustained monitoring and improving modeling capacity, especially for sea ice dynamics, is urgently needed. Concurrently, it will be necessary to develop frameworks for making precautionary decisions under continued uncertainty. We conclude that researchers should be transparent about uncertainty, presenting these model projections not as a source of scientific “answers,” but as bounding for plausible, policy-relevant questions to assess trade-offs and mitigate risks.

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来源期刊
Earths Future
Earths Future ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCESGEOSCIENCES, MULTIDI-GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY
CiteScore
11.00
自引率
7.30%
发文量
260
审稿时长
16 weeks
期刊介绍: Earth’s Future: A transdisciplinary open access journal, Earth’s Future focuses on the state of the Earth and the prediction of the planet’s future. By publishing peer-reviewed articles as well as editorials, essays, reviews, and commentaries, this journal will be the preeminent scholarly resource on the Anthropocene. It will also help assess the risks and opportunities associated with environmental changes and challenges.
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