Circulatory diseases and the wide sex and ethnic life expectancy gaps in Bulgaria since 2010

Objectives

Despite extensive public health initiatives, Bulgaria still has the lowest life expectancy at birth (LE) in the European Union. Sex and ethnic differences in LE and mortality are also exceptionally large. We aimed to identify what causes of death drive these wide disparities and thus provide clear targets for future public health interventions.

Design and methods

We conducted a retrospective analysis of mortality rates from 2010 to 2022 to assess sex disparities in LE by age and cause of death. Combining mortality data with the 2021 Bulgarian census also allowed us to study LE disparities among the three main ethnic groups (Bulgarians, Turks, and Roma). We implemented standard demographic decomposition methods to quantify the role of seven major causes of death on LE disparities.

Results

We found that the difference between male and female LE has persisted for around seven years. Circulatory diseases contribute 3.66 years, or around 50% of the male-female gap. Ethnic LE disparities are larger for women than for men. Circulatory diseases account for more than 60% of these ethnic LE gaps. COVID-19 mortality explained between 0.5 and 1.1 years of the male-female gap. We found minimal differences in COVID-19 mortality across ethnic groups in Bulgaria.

Conclusion

In Bulgaria, circulatory diseases contributed more to both the sex and ethnic LE gaps than in any other previously studied country. Our findings suggest that future public health policy initiatives should focus on circulatory diseases to narrow the Bulgarian LE disparities. One possible target for such a policy would be to reduce excessive smoking and alcohol consumption.