Assessing the importance-performance analysis of adaptive capacity programs for sustainable mangrove conservation in the Taman Nasional Bali Barat conservation area

Mangroves, which are vital for maintaining the stability of coastal ecosystems, are facing increasing threats from global changes. This highlights the urgent need for effective adaptive capacity programs. This study focuses on the evaluation of such programs within Taman Nasional Bali Barat, Indonesia, specifically looking at their effectiveness in promoting sustainable mangrove conservation. To obtain a comprehensive understanding of the community's involvement and perspectives, a survey was conducted, including a wide range of local stakeholders, not just those already involved in conservation efforts. The findings revealed that programs that prioritize flexibility, learning, and agency are crucial, but are currently underperforming. Interestingly, there was a significant variation in the willingness to participate among different groups. Fishermen and students displayed negative tendencies, while limited interest communities (a population segment historically less engaged in conservation), those with previous experiences with conservation programs, those seeking advice on marine activities, and those influenced by policies showed positive and significant responses. For example, tourist operators also exhibited a significantly positive engagement. Based on the analysis, this study provides targeted policy recommendations to enhance stakeholder engagement, improve program flexibility, and emphasize educational efforts. These recommendations aim to strengthen the adaptive capacity for sustainable mangrove management in the face of ongoing global changes.