不同二氧化碳价格路径对欧洲电力系统发展的影响

IF 7.9 2区 工程技术 Q1 ENERGY & FUELS
Erdal Tekin, Annika Gillich, Kai Hufendiek
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引用次数: 0

摘要

在能源系统转型研究中,二氧化碳价格线性上升的假设很常见,其依据是发放的欧洲配额(EUA)不断减少。配额的实际拍卖价格受市场动态的影响,由于配额可以存入银行,从而导致二氧化碳价格的非线性变化。本研究探讨了非线性二氧化碳价格轨迹对欧洲电力市场的影响。研究了 2030 年前的各种情况,如价格随市场利率上升、价格提前达到峰值、崩溃或波动。研究量化了对发电厂投资、盈利能力、消费者成本和政府收入的影响。研究结果表明,早期价格信号和高价格信号会导致风力发电厂提前转型,风力发电厂数量增加 7%,但成本增加 4%。相反,较低的初始价格会使风力发电厂的投资推迟 6%,并导致排放量增加 21%。如果通过市场稳定储备(MSR)等机制避免排放,在价格信号较早和较高的情况下,气候影响成本补偿可产生积极的成本效益分析。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。

Impact of different CO2 price paths on the development of the European electricity system

Impact of different CO2 price paths on the development of the European electricity system

In energy system transformation studies, the assumption of linearly rising CO2 prices is common and based on the decreasing issued European allowances (EUA). The actual auction price for allowances is influenced by market dynamics, resulting in non-linear variations in CO2 prices due to the possibility of banking allowances. This study explores the impact of non-linear CO2 price trajectories on the European electricity market. Various scenarios, such as increasing prices with the market interest rate, early price peaks, collapse, or fluctuations, are examined until 2030. The study quantifies the effects on power plant investments, profitability, consumer costs, and government revenues. The findings reveal that early and high price signals lead to an earlier transition with 7 % more wind power plants but at 4 % higher costs. Conversely, lower initial prices delay power plant investments in wind power plants by 6 % and result in 21 % higher emissions. Compensation for climate impact costs can yield a positive cost-benefit analysis in scenarios with early and high price signals when emissions are avoided through mechanisms like the Market Stability Reserve (MSR).

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来源期刊
Energy Strategy Reviews
Energy Strategy Reviews Energy-Energy (miscellaneous)
CiteScore
12.80
自引率
4.90%
发文量
167
审稿时长
40 weeks
期刊介绍: Energy Strategy Reviews is a gold open access journal that provides authoritative content on strategic decision-making and vision-sharing related to society''s energy needs. Energy Strategy Reviews publishes: • Analyses • Methodologies • Case Studies • Reviews And by invitation: • Report Reviews • Viewpoints
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