Investigation of the relationship between atherogenic index, anthropometric characteristics, and 10-year risk of metabolic syndrome: a population-based study.

Background: People with metabolic syndrome (MetS) are at a higher risk of coronary artery disease, diabetes mellitus, stroke, osteoarthritis, and some types of cancers. Finding markers which are available and inexpensive are most useful for the prediction of MetS. The present study aimed to determine the relationship between atherogenic index and anthropometric indicators and the 10-year risk of MetS.

Methods: During the 10-year follow-up on Mashhad stroke and heart atherosclerotic disorder (MASHAD study), 4684 subjects who did not MetS at baseline were recruited in this study. The anthropometric indices and atherogenic index including atherogenic index of plasma (AIP), Castelli's risk index I and II (CRI-I, CRI-I), and atherogenic coefficient (AC) were measured. SPSS-23 was used for all statistical analyses.

Result: Among subjects who did not have MetS at baseline 1599 cases (34.1%) developed MetS. The anthropometric and lipid indices were significantly elevated in patients with MetS compared to the healthy ones (p < 0.001). It was revealed that an increase of one unit in AIP and AC can raise the risk of MetS 22.7% (OR: 1.227 (95% CI, 1.166-1.291)) and 37.7% (OR: 1.377 (95% CI, 1.291-1.468)), respectively. Moreover, increasing one unit of WHtR decreases the risk of MetS by 8.5% (OR: 0.915 (95% CI, 0.886-0.946)).

Conclusion: The results of this longitudinal study showed that increasing AC and AIP could enhance the risk of MetS. The present study also indicated that AC and AIP are useful predictors in the clinical setting for identifying individuals with MetS in the Iranian adult population.