{"title":"估计婴幼儿接种 MenACWY 疫苗可能预防的病例数","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.vaccine.2024.126240","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><p><u>Introduction:</u> Meningococcal disease control in the UK relies on various vaccines, with the discontinuation of the Hib/MenC combination vaccine Menitorix® in 2018 necessitating reassessment of the immunisation strategy. The quadrivalent MenACWY vaccine emerges as a promising long-term solution, already integrated into the teenage immunisation regimen. While indirect control of group W and C cases is anticipated through existing programs, the high incidence of meningococcal disease in infancy underscores the potential benefits of infant/toddler vaccination.</p><p><u>Methods:</u> Utilizing data from two UK studies, we recalibrated age-specific carriage prevalence curves and estimated the proportion of meningococcal carriage attributed to ACWY and non-ACWY strains. Employing a dynamic transmission model, we evaluated the combined indirect effects of the teenage MenACWY vaccination initiative and the direct impact of administering MenACWY vaccine at either 3 or 12 months, alongside ongoing 4CMenB vaccination efforts. Given the pandemic-induced decline in cases and alterations in social contact patterns reported in prior research, we also simulated the transmission model to reflect periods of COVID-19 lockdown.</p><p><u>Results:</u> Our projections indicate effective control of carriage and disease associated with groups A, C, W, and Y through the teenage vaccination campaign. Assuming sustained high uptake of teenage vaccines amid pandemic scenario, we forecast MenACWY carriage prevalence to be below 1% by 2025. Across all scenarios, the impact of an infant/toddler MenACWY program on case reduction remains modest. Notably, administering the MenACWY dose at 3 months yields a greater number of prevented cases compared to administration at 12 months. With sustained uptake of teenage vaccination, our estimates suggest that between 3 and 22 cases could be averted in a 2025 birth cohort through a 3-month MenACWY dose.</p><p><u>Conclusions:</u> Provided teenage uptake remains high and the infant 4CMenB programme is maintained, we suggest that few cases will be prevented from an infant/ toddler MenACWY dose.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":23491,"journal":{"name":"Vaccine","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":4.5000,"publicationDate":"2024-08-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0264410X24009228/pdfft?md5=1a63d33464f1267d06f7aa56fea3d4a5&pid=1-s2.0-S0264410X24009228-main.pdf","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Estimating the potential number of cases prevented by infant/ toddler immunisation with a MenACWY vaccine\",\"authors\":\"\",\"doi\":\"10.1016/j.vaccine.2024.126240\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<div><p><u>Introduction:</u> Meningococcal disease control in the UK relies on various vaccines, with the discontinuation of the Hib/MenC combination vaccine Menitorix® in 2018 necessitating reassessment of the immunisation strategy. The quadrivalent MenACWY vaccine emerges as a promising long-term solution, already integrated into the teenage immunisation regimen. While indirect control of group W and C cases is anticipated through existing programs, the high incidence of meningococcal disease in infancy underscores the potential benefits of infant/toddler vaccination.</p><p><u>Methods:</u> Utilizing data from two UK studies, we recalibrated age-specific carriage prevalence curves and estimated the proportion of meningococcal carriage attributed to ACWY and non-ACWY strains. Employing a dynamic transmission model, we evaluated the combined indirect effects of the teenage MenACWY vaccination initiative and the direct impact of administering MenACWY vaccine at either 3 or 12 months, alongside ongoing 4CMenB vaccination efforts. Given the pandemic-induced decline in cases and alterations in social contact patterns reported in prior research, we also simulated the transmission model to reflect periods of COVID-19 lockdown.</p><p><u>Results:</u> Our projections indicate effective control of carriage and disease associated with groups A, C, W, and Y through the teenage vaccination campaign. Assuming sustained high uptake of teenage vaccines amid pandemic scenario, we forecast MenACWY carriage prevalence to be below 1% by 2025. Across all scenarios, the impact of an infant/toddler MenACWY program on case reduction remains modest. Notably, administering the MenACWY dose at 3 months yields a greater number of prevented cases compared to administration at 12 months. With sustained uptake of teenage vaccination, our estimates suggest that between 3 and 22 cases could be averted in a 2025 birth cohort through a 3-month MenACWY dose.</p><p><u>Conclusions:</u> Provided teenage uptake remains high and the infant 4CMenB programme is maintained, we suggest that few cases will be prevented from an infant/ toddler MenACWY dose.</p></div>\",\"PeriodicalId\":23491,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Vaccine\",\"volume\":null,\"pages\":null},\"PeriodicalIF\":4.5000,\"publicationDate\":\"2024-08-22\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0264410X24009228/pdfft?md5=1a63d33464f1267d06f7aa56fea3d4a5&pid=1-s2.0-S0264410X24009228-main.pdf\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Vaccine\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"3\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0264410X24009228\",\"RegionNum\":3,\"RegionCategory\":\"医学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q2\",\"JCRName\":\"IMMUNOLOGY\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Vaccine","FirstCategoryId":"3","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0264410X24009228","RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"IMMUNOLOGY","Score":null,"Total":0}
Estimating the potential number of cases prevented by infant/ toddler immunisation with a MenACWY vaccine
Introduction: Meningococcal disease control in the UK relies on various vaccines, with the discontinuation of the Hib/MenC combination vaccine Menitorix® in 2018 necessitating reassessment of the immunisation strategy. The quadrivalent MenACWY vaccine emerges as a promising long-term solution, already integrated into the teenage immunisation regimen. While indirect control of group W and C cases is anticipated through existing programs, the high incidence of meningococcal disease in infancy underscores the potential benefits of infant/toddler vaccination.
Methods: Utilizing data from two UK studies, we recalibrated age-specific carriage prevalence curves and estimated the proportion of meningococcal carriage attributed to ACWY and non-ACWY strains. Employing a dynamic transmission model, we evaluated the combined indirect effects of the teenage MenACWY vaccination initiative and the direct impact of administering MenACWY vaccine at either 3 or 12 months, alongside ongoing 4CMenB vaccination efforts. Given the pandemic-induced decline in cases and alterations in social contact patterns reported in prior research, we also simulated the transmission model to reflect periods of COVID-19 lockdown.
Results: Our projections indicate effective control of carriage and disease associated with groups A, C, W, and Y through the teenage vaccination campaign. Assuming sustained high uptake of teenage vaccines amid pandemic scenario, we forecast MenACWY carriage prevalence to be below 1% by 2025. Across all scenarios, the impact of an infant/toddler MenACWY program on case reduction remains modest. Notably, administering the MenACWY dose at 3 months yields a greater number of prevented cases compared to administration at 12 months. With sustained uptake of teenage vaccination, our estimates suggest that between 3 and 22 cases could be averted in a 2025 birth cohort through a 3-month MenACWY dose.
Conclusions: Provided teenage uptake remains high and the infant 4CMenB programme is maintained, we suggest that few cases will be prevented from an infant/ toddler MenACWY dose.
期刊介绍:
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