地方疫苗接种规定对疫苗可预防传染病可能产生的反直觉影响。

IF 2.6 4区 工程技术 Q1 Mathematics
Maddalena Donà, Pieter Trapman
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引用次数: 0

摘要

我们模拟了地方疫苗接种规定对疫苗可预防传染病传播的影响,在没有疫苗的情况下,这些疾病主要影响儿童。这类疾病包括麻疹、风疹、流行性腮腺炎和百日咳。为了模拟病原体的传播,我们使用了一个在封闭人群中具有两级混合的随机 SIR(易感者、感染者、康复者)模型,通常称为家庭模型。在该模型中,个体在特定的人口小群体(如家庭或学校班级)中进行局部接触,同时也与人口中的随机人群进行全面接触,但接触率远低于局部接触率。我们考虑了如果学校可以自由地对所有学生强制接种疫苗,但因医疗原因免于接种疫苗的学生除外,会发生什么情况。我们首先调查了这种强制规定对疾病爆发概率的影响。此外,我们还重点研究了因医疗原因免于接种疫苗的学生在疾病爆发期间受到感染的概率。我们的研究表明,如果人口的疫苗接种覆盖率接近群体免疫水平,那么在当地实施疫苗接种强制措施后,这两种概率都会增加。这是因为未接种疫苗的学生可能会被转移到没有强制规定的学校。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Possible counter-intuitive impact of local vaccine mandates for vaccine-preventable infectious diseases.

We modeled the impact of local vaccine mandates on the spread of vaccine-preventable infectious diseases, which in the absence of vaccines will mainly affect children. Examples of such diseases are measles, rubella, mumps, and pertussis. To model the spread of the pathogen, we used a stochastic SIR (susceptible, infectious, recovered) model with two levels of mixing in a closed population, often referred to as the household model. In this model, individuals make local contacts within a specific small subgroup of the population (e.g., within a household or a school class), while they also make global contacts with random people in the population at a much lower rate than the rate of local contacts. We considered what would happen if schools were given freedom to impose vaccine mandates on all of their pupils, except for the pupils that were exempt from vaccination because of medical reasons. We investigated first how such a mandate affected the probability of an outbreak of a disease. Furthermore, we focused on the probability that a pupil that was medically exempt from vaccination, would get infected during an outbreak. We showed that if the population vaccine coverage was close to the herd-immunity level, then both probabilities may increase if local vaccine mandates were implemented. This was caused by unvaccinated pupils possibly being moved to schools without mandates.

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来源期刊
Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering
Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering 工程技术-数学跨学科应用
CiteScore
3.90
自引率
7.70%
发文量
586
审稿时长
>12 weeks
期刊介绍: Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering (MBE) is an interdisciplinary Open Access journal promoting cutting-edge research, technology transfer and knowledge translation about complex data and information processing. MBE publishes Research articles (long and original research); Communications (short and novel research); Expository papers; Technology Transfer and Knowledge Translation reports (description of new technologies and products); Announcements and Industrial Progress and News (announcements and even advertisement, including major conferences).
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