对沙特阿拉伯防止 MERS-CoV 在人类和骆驼中传播的控制策略进行数学评估。

IF 2.6 4区 工程技术 Q1 Mathematics
Adel Alatawi, Abba B Gumel
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引用次数: 0

摘要

中东呼吸综合征(MERS)是一种由 MERS-CoV 冠状病毒引起的呼吸道病毒(主要通过单峰骆驼传播给人类),2012 年首次在沙特阿拉伯王国(KSA)出现。利用沙特观察到的MERS-CoV数据对模型进行了拟合和交叉验证,对模型进行的严格分析表明,只要其繁殖数(用$ {\mathbb R}_{0M} $表示)小于1,其无病平衡就是局部渐近稳定的。利用该模型的固定参数和估计参数,KSA的{\mathbb R}_{0M} $值估计为0.84,这表明消灭MERS-CoV的前景非常乐观。对模型进行了扩展,以评估公共卫生干预策略,特别是可能对人类和骆驼使用疫苗,以及人类在公共场合或与骆驼近距离接触时使用口罩。扩展模型的模拟结果表明,作为唯一的公共卫生干预策略,人类在与骆驼近距离接触时使用口罩可显著减少人对骆驼和骆驼对人的疾病传播,而这种减少取决于社区中使用的口罩类型的有效性和覆盖范围。例如,如果优先使用外科口罩,那么至少有 45% 与骆驼有密切接触的人持续佩戴外科口罩,就能在人类和骆驼群体中消除该疾病。模拟结果进一步表明,作为唯一的干预策略,为人类接种疫苗对减少人类疾病负担的影响微乎其微,而以为骆驼接种疫苗为基础的干预策略只会显著减少骆驼的疾病负担(因此也会减少人类的疾病负担)。因此,这项研究表明,应将注意力集中在有效防治骆驼群体中的疾病,而不是人类群体中的疾病。此外,研究人员还利用扩展模型模拟了一种混合策略,该策略将人类和骆驼的疫苗接种以及人类使用口罩结合在一起。模拟结果表明,与基线方案或上述任何单一疫苗接种方案相比,人类和骆驼的疾病负担都明显减轻,而且这种干预措施的效果也在不断提高。总之,这项研究表明,采用药物(疫苗接种)和非药物(面罩)干预策略,单独或(最好)结合实施,重点减少骆驼群体的疾病负担,在沙特阿拉伯王国消灭 MERS-CoV-2 的前景是光明的。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Mathematical assessment of control strategies against the spread of MERS-CoV in humans and camels in Saudi Arabia.

A new mathematical model for the transmission dynamics and control of the Middle Eastern respiratory syndrome (MERS), a respiratory virus caused by MERS-CoV coronavirus (and primarily spread to humans by dromedary camels) that first emerged out of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) in 2012, was designed and used to study the transmission dynamics of the disease in a human-camel population within the KSA. Rigorous analysis of the model, which was fitted and cross-validated using the observed MERS-CoV data for the KSA, showed that its disease-free equilibrium was locally asymptotically stable whenever its reproduction number (denoted by $ {\mathbb R}_{0M} $) was less than unity. Using the fixed and estimated parameters of the model, the value of $ {\mathbb R}_{0M} $ for the KSA was estimated to be 0.84, suggesting that the prospects for MERS-CoV elimination are highly promising. The model was extended to allow for the assessment of public health intervention strategies, notably the potential use of vaccines for both humans and camels and the use of face masks by humans in public or when in close proximity with camels. Simulations of the extended model showed that the use of the face mask by humans who come in close proximity with camels, as a sole public health intervention strategy, significantly reduced human-to-camel and camel-to-human transmission of the disease, and this reduction depends on the efficacy and coverage of the mask type used in the community. For instance, if surgical masks are prioritized, the disease can be eliminated in both the human and camel population if at least 45% of individuals who have close contact with camels wear them consistently. The simulations further showed that while vaccinating humans as a sole intervention strategy only had marginal impact in reducing the disease burden in the human population, an intervention strategy based on vaccinating camels only resulted in a significant reduction in the disease burden in camels (and, consequently, in humans as well). Thus, this study suggests that attention should be focused on effectively combating the disease in the camel population, rather than in the human population. Furthermore, the extended model was used to simulate a hybrid strategy, which combined vaccination of both humans and camels as well as the use of face masks by humans. This simulation showed a marked reduction of the disease burden in both humans and camels, with an increasing effectiveness level of this intervention, in comparison to the baseline scenario or any of the aforementioned sole vaccination scenarios. In summary, this study showed that the prospect of the elimination of MERS-CoV-2 in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia is promising using pharmaceutical (vaccination) and nonpharmaceutical (mask) intervention strategies, implemented in isolation or (preferably) in combination, that are focused on reducing the disease burden in the camel population.

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来源期刊
Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering
Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering 工程技术-数学跨学科应用
CiteScore
3.90
自引率
7.70%
发文量
586
审稿时长
>12 weeks
期刊介绍: Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering (MBE) is an interdisciplinary Open Access journal promoting cutting-edge research, technology transfer and knowledge translation about complex data and information processing. MBE publishes Research articles (long and original research); Communications (short and novel research); Expository papers; Technology Transfer and Knowledge Translation reports (description of new technologies and products); Announcements and Industrial Progress and News (announcements and even advertisement, including major conferences).
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