Renato Rosa , Constança Simas , Rodrigo Ataíde , Paula Soares , Margarida Tomé
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Optimal forest management under climate change variability
Ecosystems are likely to be severely affected by climate change. While the literature on this subject focuses primarily on climate variable means, increasing evidence has been gathered on the importance of changes in climate variability in determining ecosystem impacts. In this context, forests play a significant role. While, on the one hand, forests have often been identified to be a key element in mitigating greenhouse gas emissions, on the other, forests are also affected by changes in climate. However, the number of studies on optimal forest management under climate change remains limited and has overlooked the role of climate variability. This paper adds to that literature by developing a coupled ecological-economic forest stand model in which forest dynamics are a function of monthly climate variables. We show that accounting for changes in climate variability substantially changes earlier findings. In particular, ignoring climate variability may fail to adequately account for changes in optimal harvest age and lead to erroneous conclusions regarding the effects of climate change on forested land value.
期刊介绍:
Ecological Economics is concerned with extending and integrating the understanding of the interfaces and interplay between "nature''s household" (ecosystems) and "humanity''s household" (the economy). Ecological economics is an interdisciplinary field defined by a set of concrete problems or challenges related to governing economic activity in a way that promotes human well-being, sustainability, and justice. The journal thus emphasizes critical work that draws on and integrates elements of ecological science, economics, and the analysis of values, behaviors, cultural practices, institutional structures, and societal dynamics. The journal is transdisciplinary in spirit and methodologically open, drawing on the insights offered by a variety of intellectual traditions, and appealing to a diverse readership.
Specific research areas covered include: valuation of natural resources, sustainable agriculture and development, ecologically integrated technology, integrated ecologic-economic modelling at scales from local to regional to global, implications of thermodynamics for economics and ecology, renewable resource management and conservation, critical assessments of the basic assumptions underlying current economic and ecological paradigms and the implications of alternative assumptions, economic and ecological consequences of genetically engineered organisms, and gene pool inventory and management, alternative principles for valuing natural wealth, integrating natural resources and environmental services into national income and wealth accounts, methods of implementing efficient environmental policies, case studies of economic-ecologic conflict or harmony, etc. New issues in this area are rapidly emerging and will find a ready forum in Ecological Economics.