The Perils of the Unknown: Intolerance of Uncertainty and Intimate Partner Violence Across the First Four Pandemic Waves.

Theory suggests that intolerance of uncertainty (IU), a tendency to perceive uncertain events as threatening, may serve as a potential risk factor for increased intimate partner violence (IPV) perpetration; however, few studies have investigated this association, and none have taken a longitudinal approach. We investigated the issue in two longitudinal online investigations (initial N = 282 and 1,118), with time periods ranging from just before the COVID-19 pandemic to the fourth pandemic wave, approximately 1.5 years later. IU was a significant predictor of IPV cross-sectionally, and in the short term longitudinally (i.e., over periods of weeks); however, it did not predict IPV over the longer term (i.e., over periods of months or years). In addition, our longitudinal design allowed assessment of IPV trends across pandemic waves. Physical IPV rates remained low and steady across time. Psychological IPV rates showed an increase in the early days of the pandemic, but then dropped and stabilized, albeit at a somewhat higher rate than pre-pandemic. Study 2 had ample representation of LGBTQ+ respondents and showed that the patterns and processes worked similarly for LGBTQ+ and non-LGBTQ+ individuals.