Nomogram for predicting the risk of anxiety and depression in patients with non-mild burns.

Background: Post-burn anxiety and depression affect considerably the quality of life and recovery of patients; however, limited research has demonstrated risk factors associated with the development of these conditions.

Aim: To predict the risk of developing post-burn anxiety and depression in patients with non-mild burns using a nomogram model.

Methods: We enrolled 675 patients with burns who were admitted to The Second Affiliated Hospital, Hengyang Medical School, University of South China between January 2019 and January 2023 and met the inclusion criteria. These patients were randomly divided into development (n = 450) and validation (n = 225) sets in a 2:1 ratio. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were conducted to identify the risk factors associated with post-burn anxiety and depression diagnoses, and a nomogram model was constructed.

Results: Female sex, age < 33 years, unmarried status, burn area ≥ 30%, and burns on the head, face, and neck were independent risk factors for developing post-burn anxiety and depression in patients with non-mild burns. The nomogram model demonstrated predictive accuracies of 0.937 and 0.984 for anxiety and 0.884 and 0.923 for depression in the development and validation sets, respectively, and good predictive performance. Calibration and decision curve analyses confirmed the clinical utility of the nomogram.

Conclusion: The nomogram model predicted the risk of post-burn anxiety and depression in patients with non-mild burns, facilitating the early identification of high-risk patients for intervention and treatment.