Tailoring surveillance imaging in uveal melanoma based on individual metastatic risk.

Objective: To develop surveillance programs for uveal melanoma patients, tailored to metastatic risk.

Methods: Surveillance schedules were developed using the number needed to scan (NNS) concept, based on weighted average metastasis-free survival (MFS) rates from systematic review data of 18 prognostic groups (Disomy 3 (D3), Monosomy 3 (M3), EIF1AX-mutation, SF3B1-mutation, BAP1-mutation, high or low nBAP-1 immunohistochemistry, gene expression profiling classes (1;1A;1B;1^PRAME-;1^PRAME+;2;2^PRAME-;2^PRAME+), and V stages I-III).

Results: In a typical surveillance schedule, involving biannual examinations years 1-5 and annual examinations years 6-10, the NNS varies dramatically from 1 to nearly infinity, underscoring the necessity for personalized surveillance approaches. On the basis of MFS data from 12 articles (n = 8046) and the targeted NNS level, the first surveillance examination under our model is recommended from 3 months to 5 years postdiagnosis. Specifically, the NNS 20 strategy requires an average of 10 examinations (SD 7), with D3 patients needing only two examinations (at 2- and 5-years' postdiagnosis), while those in GEP class 2^PRAME+ require up to 17 examinations, scheduled between year 1 and 8. Under an NNS 20 protocol, we anticipate that 1-2% of examinations will lead to the use of effective treatments for metastatic disease, such as tebentafusp. The study presents customized surveillance schedules for all prognostic groups across various NNS levels, accompanied by a methodology for adapting surveillance to any desired NNS target.

Conclusion: Customizing uveal melanoma surveillance to match metastatic risks could transform current practices, ensuring more precise protocols, reducing unnecessary examinations, and directing health care resources to those in greatest need.