展望研究与实践的未来共鸣

IF 3 3区 管理学 Q1 ECONOMICS
Lauren M. Lambert , Cynthia Selin , Tom Chermack
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引用次数: 0

摘要

展望方法有助于我们思考未来,克服决策中的短期思维偏差。然而,许多调查未来的方法往往忽略了参与干预的个人在实践中和随着时间的推移如何与现在和未来联系起来。为了弥补这一不足,我们的研究强调了两种方法--"情景规划 "和 "未来设计"--的优势。在一项结合了这两种方法的试点研究中,我们报告了在四家公司的战略规划研讨会上应用这种新颖的混合方法的结果。从试点案例研究和文献综述中获得的初步思考和经验,有助于建立对方法创新的实践和理论工作的理解。通过调查这种展望方法的组合,本研究开辟了思考未来的新途径,并提出了 "未来移情 "理论。未来移情以一种新颖的方式利用人的移情能力,将其应用于未来环境。它包括自我与尚未存在的未来之间的双循环迭代过程。通过想象和反思,建立 "未来移情 "的展望方法可以加强个人与更长时间跨度的联系和融合,从而克服当下主义。通过提出 "未来移情 "理论,我们希望能够在实践中,并随着时间的推移,在多种展望干预措施中,更好地将现在与未来联系起来。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Futures empathy for foresight research and practice

Foresight methods help us to think about the future and overcome a bias toward short-term thinking in decision making. However, many approaches to investigating the future tend to leave implicit how individuals involved in the interventions relate to the present and to the future in practice and over time. To address this gap, our study highlights the affordances of two methodologies —Scenario Planning and Future Design. In a pilot study combining these methods, we report the results of the novel hybridized approach applied in strategic planning workshops across four corporations. Initial reflections and learnings from the pilot case study and literature review helps to build understandings of the practical and theoretical workings of the methodological innovation. By investigating this combination of foresight methodologies, this research opens up new ways for thinking about futuring and proposes a theory of Futures Empathy. Futures Empathy harnesses a person’s capacity for empathy in a novel way by applying it toward a future context. It consists of an iterative double looping process between self and a not yet existent future. Through imagination and reflection, foresight methods that build Futures Empathy can enhance personal connection and integration with a longer time horizon, thus overcoming presentism. By proposing a theory of Futures Empathy, we hope to contribute to better present and future relating in practice and over time across a multitude of foresight interventions.

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来源期刊
Futures
Futures Multiple-
CiteScore
6.00
自引率
10.00%
发文量
124
期刊介绍: Futures is an international, refereed, multidisciplinary journal concerned with medium and long-term futures of cultures and societies, science and technology, economics and politics, environment and the planet and individuals and humanity. Covering methods and practices of futures studies, the journal seeks to examine possible and alternative futures of all human endeavours. Futures seeks to promote divergent and pluralistic visions, ideas and opinions about the future. The editors do not necessarily agree with the views expressed in the pages of Futures
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