在工业设施风险评估中考虑安全屏障老化问题的基于故障物理（PoF）模型的动态贝叶斯网络

IF 3.6 3区工程技术 Q2 ENGINEERING, CHEMICAL

Journal of Loss Prevention in The Process Industries Pub Date : 2024-08-08 DOI:10.1016/j.jlp.2024.105402

Stefano Marchetti , Francesco Di Maio , Enrico Zio

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引用次数: 0

摘要

在这项工作中，提出了一种基于失效物理模型（PoF）的新型框架，用于在工业设施风险评估中考虑安全屏障的老化问题。老化的 PoF 模型被集成到安全屏障脆性模型中，以提供脆性表面，作为危险程度和安全屏障年龄的函数。这种模型被集成到动态贝叶斯网络（DBN）中，用于风险评估。所提出的框架被应用于一个案例研究，该案例研究的对象是一个面临地震引发的自然灾害诱发的技术（NaTech）风险的化工设施。结果证明了该框架的可行性和有效性。

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A Physics-of-Failure (PoF) model-based Dynamic Bayesian Network for considering the aging of safety barriers in the risk assessment of industrial facilities

In this work, a novel Physics-of-Failure (PoF) model-based framework is proposed for accounting for the aging of safety barriers in the risk assessment of industrial facilities. A PoF model of aging is integrated into the barriers fragility models to provide fragility surfaces as functions of both the hazard magnitude and the barrier age. Such modelling is integrated in a Dynamic Bayesian Network (DBN) for the risk assessment. The proposed framework is applied to a case study of a chemical facility exposed to Natural hazard-induced Technological (NaTech) risk due to earthquakes. The results demonstrate the feasibility and effectiveness of the framework.

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来源期刊

Journal of Loss Prevention in The Process Industries 工程技术-工程：化工

CiteScore

7.20

自引率

14.30%

发文量

226

审稿时长

52 days

期刊介绍： The broad scope of the journal is process safety. Process safety is defined as the prevention and mitigation of process-related injuries and damage arising from process incidents involving fire, explosion and toxic release. Such undesired events occur in the process industries during the use, storage, manufacture, handling, and transportation of highly hazardous chemicals.