Better performance of the APPLE score for the prediction of very early atrial fibrillation recurrence post-ablation.

Objective: The benefits of rhythm control in early atrial fibrillation (AF) are increasingly recognized. This study aimed to investigate whether early AF ablation contributes to long-term sinus rhythm maintenance and to identify a suitable predictive score.

Methods: According to diagnosis-to-ablation time, this study prospectively enrolled 245 patients with very early AF, 262 with early AF, and 588 with late AF for radiofrequency ablation from June 2017 to December 2022. Clinical data, risk scores, and follow-up results were collected and analyzed.

Results: Baseline characteristics were similar among the three cohorts. During a median follow-up period of 26 months, AF recurrence was observed in 61 (24.9%), 66 (25.2%), and 216 (36.7%) patients in the very early, early, and late AF cohorts, respectively. In the multivariable-adjusted model, very early and early AF were associated with a reduced risk of AF recurrence, with hazard ratios of 0.72 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.52-0.99) and 0.57 (95% CI 0.41-0.78), respectively. The APPLE score demonstrated the highest predictive power for very early AF, with an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.74. However, its predictive power decreased with time from diagnosis, showing low predictive power for late AF (AUC = 0.58). In addition, the time-dependent concordance index showed consistent results. For very early AF, the Akaike information criterion and decision curve analysis showed that APPLE had the highest predictive value.

Conclusion: Very early AF ablation was associated with a lower recurrence rate, and the APPLE score provided a higher predictive value for these patients. (URL: https://www.chictr.org.cn/; Unique identifier: ChiCTR-OIN-17013021).