Jorge Palacio-Vieira, Yesika Díaz, Sergio Moreno-Fornés, Andreu Bruguera, Daniel K Nomah, Josep M Llibre, Hernando Knobel, Iván Chivite, José M Miró, Paula Suanzes, Francisco Fanjul, Gemma Navarro, Lizza Macorigh, Francesc Homar Borràs, Ingrid Vilaró López, Amat Joaquim Orti Llaveria, Jordi Casabona, Arkaitz Imaz, Juliana Reyes-Urueña
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Developing and validating a clinical risk score to predict losses in the PISCIS cohort of people with HIV.
Background: People lost to follow-up (LTFU) from HIV care have an increased risk of worse health. The objective of this study is to create and validate a risk score to predict LTFU among PLWH in Catalonia and the Balearic Islands.
Methods: 6661 PLWH were included. LTFU were those without contact with HIV care for 12 months or more. Logistic regression models were used to assess the role of independent factors on LTFU. The validation included a 10-fold iteration to predict the performance of the regression model and the Area under the ROC Curve (AUC). Regression coefficients were rounded and summed to construct the score.
Results: Determinants of LTFU included being younger than 34 years (OR: 1.80, CI, 1.44-2.23), not having been born in Spain (OR: 1.32, 1.11-1.58), men who inject drugs (OR: 2.10, 1.38-3.19), having a detectable viral load (OR: 3.14, 2.47-3.99), and ≤2.5 years since HIV diagnosis (OR: 3.84, 3.10-4.75). The validation of determinants resulted in a mean AUC of 0.69 and the risk-score revealed that 28.8% had a medium and 3.4% a high risk of LTFU respectively.
Conclusions: Findings can be used to prevent LTFU in HIV care.
期刊介绍：
The International Journal of STD & AIDS provides a clinically oriented forum for investigating and treating sexually transmissible infections, HIV and AIDS. Publishing original research and practical papers, the journal contains in-depth review articles, short papers, case reports, audit reports, CPD papers and a lively correspondence column. This journal is a member of the Committee on Publication Ethics (COPE).
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