如履薄冰:太阳地球工程在 2040 年前控制冰冻圈的临界点风险

IF 7.3 1区 地球科学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
Earths Future Pub Date : 2024-08-13 DOI:10.1029/2024EF004797
Wake Smith, Madeline F. Bartels, Jasper G. Boers, Christian V. Rice
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引用次数: 0

摘要

临界要素是气候系统的特征,如果被推到某个临界点("临界点")之外,气候系统就会表现出自我强化和非线性反应。模型显示,无论人类遵循哪种排放途径,我们都可能在未来几十年内超过其中几个临界点。一些临界点位于北极和南极,有可能通过仅在两极实施平流层气溶胶注入计划(SAI)来避免或阻止。本文认为,作为一个风险管理问题,积极发展应对极地突发临界要素威胁的能力非常有用。然后,它研究了到 2040 年使这种能力投入运行所需的空中和地面基础设施,并发现这将需要一个有资金信誉的行动者在大约 2030 年之前做出资助发射的决定。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
On Thin Ice: Solar Geoengineering to Manage Tipping Element Risks in the Cryosphere by 2040

Tipping elements are features of the climate system that can display self-reinforcing and non-linear responses if pushed beyond a certain threshold (the “tipping point”). Models suggest that we may surpass several of these tipping points in the next few decades, irrespective of which emissions pathway humanity follows. Some tipping elements reside in the Arctic and Antarctic and could potentially be avoided or arrested via a stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI) program applied only at the poles. This paper considers the utility of proactively developing the capacity to respond to emergent tipping element threats at the poles as a matter of risk management. It then examines both the air and ground infrastructure that would be required to operationalize such capability by 2040 and finds that this would require a funded launch decision by a financially credible actor by roughly 2030.

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来源期刊
Earths Future
Earths Future ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCESGEOSCIENCES, MULTIDI-GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY
CiteScore
11.00
自引率
7.30%
发文量
260
审稿时长
16 weeks
期刊介绍: Earth’s Future: A transdisciplinary open access journal, Earth’s Future focuses on the state of the Earth and the prediction of the planet’s future. By publishing peer-reviewed articles as well as editorials, essays, reviews, and commentaries, this journal will be the preeminent scholarly resource on the Anthropocene. It will also help assess the risks and opportunities associated with environmental changes and challenges.
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