Higher intraindividual variability of body mass index is associated with elevated risk of COVID-19 related hospitalization and post-COVID conditions

Cardiometabolic diseases are risk factors for COVID-19 severity. The extent that cardiometabolic health represents a modifiable factor to mitigate the short- and long-term consequences from SARS-CoV-2 remains unclear. Our objective was to evaluate the associations between intraindividual variability of cardiometabolic health indicators and COVID-19 related hospitalizations and post-COVID conditions (PCC) among a relatively healthy population. This retrospective, multi-site cohort study was a post-hoc analysis among individuals with cardiometabolic health data collected during routine blood donation visits in 24 US states (2009-2018) and who responded to COVID-19 questionnaires (2021–2023). Intraindividual variability of blood pressure (systolic, diastolic), total circulating cholesterol, and body mass index (BMI) were defined as the coefficient of variation (CV) across all available donation timepoints (ranging from 3 to 74); participants were categorized into CV quartiles. Associations were evaluated by multivariable binomial regressions. Overall, 3344 participants provided 42,090 donations (median 9 [IQR 5, 17]). The median age was 48 years (38, 56) at the first study donation. 1.2% (N = 40) were hospitalized due to COVID-19 and 15.5% (N = 519) had PCC. Higher BMI variability was associated with greater risk of COVID-19 hospitalization (4th quartile aRR 4.15 [95% CI 1.31, 13.11], p = 0.02; 3rd quartile aRR 3.41 [95% CI 1.09, 10.69], p = 0.04). Participants with higher variability of BMI had greater risk of PCC (4th quartile aRR 1.29 [95% CI 1.02, 1.64]; p = 0.04). Intraindividual variability of blood pressure (systolic, diastolic) and total circulating cholesterol were not associated with COVID-19 hospitalization or PCC risk (all p > 0.05). From causal mediation analysis, the association between the highest quartiles of BMI variability and PCC was not mediated by hospitalization (p > 0.05). Higher intraindividual variability of BMI was associated with COVID-19 hospitalization and PCC risk. Our findings underscore the need for further elucidating mechanisms that explain these associations and importance for consistent maintenance of body weight.