Impact of decreasing land–sea horizontal pressure gradient on the lightning activity over western India

With future global warming projections, how lightning activity changes in the warmer world is still a debated and challenging question. During the Indian pre-monsoon season (March–May), land surface heating and moisture availability due to prevailing winds from the neighbouring oceans provide favourable conditions for thunderstorm formation. Based on 24 years of lightning data from 2000 to 2023 detected by Lightning Imaging Sensor/Optical Transient Detector (LIS/OTD) and Indian Lightning Location Network (ILLN), the trend of lightning flashes over western India (15°–22°N, 72.5°–81°E) has been investigated. Our results demonstrate a steady decline in lightning activity during the pre-monsoon season over western India, which contradicts the previous studies suggesting an increasing lightning trend over the Indian Subcontinent and other parts of the world. Our analysis has shown a falling trend of lightning activity at a rate of −0.066 flashes·km⁻² year⁻¹ from 2000 to 2013 (LIS/OTD) and −0.14 M flashes·year⁻¹ from 2014 to 2023 (ILLN). Our observation and previous research strongly suggested that the pressure difference between the land and the neighbouring oceans during pre-monsoon and monsoon has been weakening for a long time over the Indian region, and we have found a consistent reduction in wind speed over the study region. Here, we propose that the enhanced Indian Ocean warming potentially weakens the land–sea thermal contrast and, thereby, reduces the horizontal pressure gradient. Further, the decreasing trend in the land–sea horizontal pressure gradient resulted in a declining rate of wind speed over western India, affecting moisture transport over land. Thus, the study emphasizes the impact of the decreased land–sea horizontal pressure gradient on declining lighting activity in western India.