Sensitivity of development goals to water scarcity of Iraq and transboundary regions

Iraq and its transboundary regions have significant challenges from water scarcity in combination with other social and environmental factors. There are short- and long-term implications for vulnerable demographics, such as youth. With Iraq's dependence on upstream water management, there is a need to address several critical factors of transboundary watersheds such as the Haditha, Mosul, Dokan, and Euphrates-Tigris basin. This paper develops the use of particular social, hydrological, and other environmental factors in a risk register of basins and vulnerable populations, where societal priorities vary across scenarios of hydrology and water. Social data (i.e., gridded youth population data) and hydrological observations (i.e., precipitation, temperature, root zone soil moisture, and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI)) are obtained from publicly available satellite-based Earth observations and global models. Risk is defined and quantified as the disruption of basin order and spatial plots are provided to improve understanding of the spatial distribution of water scarcity challenges in the region with regard to vulnerable populations. The results feature identification of the most and least disruptive scenarios including: 1) population density is lowest in basins exposed to the highest air temperatures, 2) an urban-to-rural migration pattern (such as prompted by a public health crisis) would significantly disrupt basin order, and 3) populations with greatest exposure to extreme hydrological conditions of water scarcity are found in the southern basins of Iraq in or near the Al-Muthanna governorate. The impacts of this work are to steer future investments that mitigate risk of disrupted system orders and to increase system resilience of vulnerable populations to water scarcity.