Sectoral carbon dioxide emissions and environmental sustainability in Pakistan

Global greenhouse gases and carbon dioxide emissions have escalated to concerning levels. Given the growing urbanization, industrialization, and energy consumption, it is crucial to understand how carbon dioxide emissions from various sectors influence environmental sustainability in Pakistan. The prime objective of this study is to examine the nexus between sectoral carbon dioxide emissions and environmental sustainability in Pakistan, analyzing data from 1971 to 2014. The study employs the Stochastic Impacts by Regression on Population, Affluence, and Technology (STIRPAT) method and the Autoregressive Distributive Lag (ARDL) model to analyze patterns and relationships, providing insights into how each sector's emissions contribute to the overall environmental impact. The results highlight that the independent variables – economic growth, population growth, and energy consumption - are the most significant contributors to overall carbon dioxide emissions, driven by the high consumption of fossil fuels. At an aggregate/disaggregate level, various models show mixed associations between dependent variables such as overall carbon dioxide emissions, carbon dioxide emissions from gaseous fuel consumption, carbon dioxide emissions from liquid fuel consumption, carbon dioxide emissions from solid fuel consumption, carbon dioxide emissions from residential buildings, commercial and public services, and carbon dioxide emissions from the transportation sector with the independent variables. Pairwise Granger causality confirms a unidirectional causality among various pairs of relationships. The study suggests that policymakers in Pakistan adopt a multi-sectoral approach to achieve environmental sustainability. It also recommends accelerating the transition to renewable energy sources such as solar, wind, and hydropower to reduce dependence on fossil fuels.