The energy transition paradox: How lithium extraction puts pressure on environment, society, and politics

Lithium-ion batteries are essential for Europe's renewable energy transition. By 2030, the EU will need 18 times more lithium, and by 2050, 60 times more. For that reason, Europe aims to increase domestic sourcing and achieve nearly full self-sufficiency by 2030. However, lithium mining has a high environmental footprint and can have severe social impacts. This research examines the socio-environmental implications of lithium mining for the EU energy transition and identifies leverage points that alleviate tension between justice and security. The Social, Technological, Economic, Environmental, and Political framework was used to systematically gather insights from experts representing various stakeholders on these issues. Subsequently, these insights were compiled into a fuzzy-cognitive map, creating a system-based overview and allow construction and comparison of four scenarios examining the future of lithium and its impacts on the environment and local communities in Europe. This reveals the importance of good governance to avoid issues of corruption and geopolitical tensions with a potential adverse impact on society and environment. However, governance alone is insufficient to mitigate negative impacts. A circular economy, where lithium is recovered from used batteries, is most favorable, reducing the demand for new material and the negative impacts of mining. This holistic overview stresses the need for increased government involvement, stakeholder alignment, and dealing with corruption as vital aspects in mitigating the negative socio-environmental impacts of lithium mining.