家庭资产和商业周期波动

IF 0.8 4区经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS

Bulletin of Economic Research Pub Date : 2024-08-05 DOI:10.1111/boer.12469

Shogo Miura

{"title":"家庭资产和商业周期波动","authors":"Shogo Miura","doi":"10.1111/boer.12469","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"This paper shows that an increase in the ratio of household assets to gross domestic product (GDP) predicts higher GDP growth in the short term, but lower growth in the long term. It is also associated with lower consumption, investment, and employment rates in the future. The result is robust to controlling for various economic indicators including credit spreads, household debt to GDP ratio, and leverage ratio. Finally, we estimate a structural vector autoregressive model and find that an increase in the interest rate is associated with a decrease in the household assets to GDP ratio, in contrast to the findings of Galí and Gambetti (2015, American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 7(1), 233–257). This appears to support the conventional view of monetary policy.","PeriodicalId":46233,"journal":{"name":"Bulletin of Economic Research","volume":"59 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.8000,"publicationDate":"2024-08-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Household assets and business cycle fluctuations\",\"authors\":\"Shogo Miura\",\"doi\":\"10.1111/boer.12469\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"This paper shows that an increase in the ratio of household assets to gross domestic product (GDP) predicts higher GDP growth in the short term, but lower growth in the long term. It is also associated with lower consumption, investment, and employment rates in the future. The result is robust to controlling for various economic indicators including credit spreads, household debt to GDP ratio, and leverage ratio. Finally, we estimate a structural vector autoregressive model and find that an increase in the interest rate is associated with a decrease in the household assets to GDP ratio, in contrast to the findings of Galí and Gambetti (2015, American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 7(1), 233–257). This appears to support the conventional view of monetary policy.\",\"PeriodicalId\":46233,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Bulletin of Economic Research\",\"volume\":\"59 1\",\"pages\":\"\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":0.8000,\"publicationDate\":\"2024-08-05\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Bulletin of Economic Research\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"96\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.1111/boer.12469\",\"RegionNum\":4,\"RegionCategory\":\"经济学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q3\",\"JCRName\":\"ECONOMICS\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Bulletin of Economic Research","FirstCategoryId":"96","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1111/boer.12469","RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q3","JCRName":"ECONOMICS","Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

摘要

本文表明，家庭资产与国内生产总值（GDP）之比的增加可预测短期内较高的 GDP 增长率，但长期增长率较低。它还与未来较低的消费、投资和就业率有关。这一结果在控制各种经济指标（包括信贷利差、家庭债务与国内生产总值之比以及杠杆率）后是稳健的。最后，我们估计了一个结构性向量自回归模型，发现利率上升与家庭资产与GDP比率下降相关，这与Galí和Gambetti（2015年，《美国经济学报》：宏观经济学》，7（1），233-257）的结论相反。这似乎支持了传统的货币政策观点。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

查看原文本刊更多论文

Household assets and business cycle fluctuations

This paper shows that an increase in the ratio of household assets to gross domestic product (GDP) predicts higher GDP growth in the short term, but lower growth in the long term. It is also associated with lower consumption, investment, and employment rates in the future. The result is robust to controlling for various economic indicators including credit spreads, household debt to GDP ratio, and leverage ratio. Finally, we estimate a structural vector autoregressive model and find that an increase in the interest rate is associated with a decrease in the household assets to GDP ratio, in contrast to the findings of Galí and Gambetti (2015, American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 7(1), 233–257). This appears to support the conventional view of monetary policy.

求助全文

通过发布文献求助，成功后即可免费获取论文全文。去求助

来源期刊

Bulletin of Economic Research ECONOMICS-

CiteScore

1.40

自引率

0.00%

发文量

期刊介绍： The Bulletin of Economic Research is an international journal publishing articles across the entire field of economics, econometrics and economic history. The Bulletin contains original theoretical, applied and empirical work which makes a substantial contribution to the subject and is of broad interest to economists. We welcome submissions in all fields and, with the Bulletin expanding in new areas, we particularly encourage submissions in the fields of experimental economics, financial econometrics and health economics. In addition to full-length articles the Bulletin publishes refereed shorter articles, notes and comments; authoritative survey articles in all areas of economics and special themed issues.