Samantha Linn, Sean D. Lawley, Bhargav R. Karamched, Zachary P. Kilpatrick, Krešimir Josić
{"title":"快速决策反映偏见,缓慢决策不反映偏见","authors":"Samantha Linn, Sean D. Lawley, Bhargav R. Karamched, Zachary P. Kilpatrick, Krešimir Josić","doi":"10.1103/physreve.110.024305","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"Decisions are often made by heterogeneous groups of individuals, each with distinct initial biases and access to information of different quality. We show that in groups of independent agents who accumulate evidence the first to decide are those with the strongest initial biases. Their decisions align with their initial bias, regardless of the underlying truth. In contrast, agents who decide last make decisions as if they were initially unbiased and hence make better choices. We obtain asymptotic expressions in the large population limit quantifying how agents' initial inclinations shape early decisions. Our analysis shows how bias, information quality, and decision order interact in nontrivial ways to determine the reliability of decisions in a group.","PeriodicalId":20085,"journal":{"name":"Physical review. E","volume":"24 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.4000,"publicationDate":"2024-08-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Fast decisions reflect biases; slow decisions do not\",\"authors\":\"Samantha Linn, Sean D. Lawley, Bhargav R. Karamched, Zachary P. Kilpatrick, Krešimir Josić\",\"doi\":\"10.1103/physreve.110.024305\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"Decisions are often made by heterogeneous groups of individuals, each with distinct initial biases and access to information of different quality. We show that in groups of independent agents who accumulate evidence the first to decide are those with the strongest initial biases. Their decisions align with their initial bias, regardless of the underlying truth. In contrast, agents who decide last make decisions as if they were initially unbiased and hence make better choices. We obtain asymptotic expressions in the large population limit quantifying how agents' initial inclinations shape early decisions. Our analysis shows how bias, information quality, and decision order interact in nontrivial ways to determine the reliability of decisions in a group.\",\"PeriodicalId\":20085,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Physical review. E\",\"volume\":\"24 1\",\"pages\":\"\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":2.4000,\"publicationDate\":\"2024-08-12\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Physical review. E\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"101\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.1103/physreve.110.024305\",\"RegionNum\":3,\"RegionCategory\":\"物理与天体物理\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q1\",\"JCRName\":\"Mathematics\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Physical review. E","FirstCategoryId":"101","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1103/physreve.110.024305","RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"物理与天体物理","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"Mathematics","Score":null,"Total":0}
Fast decisions reflect biases; slow decisions do not
Decisions are often made by heterogeneous groups of individuals, each with distinct initial biases and access to information of different quality. We show that in groups of independent agents who accumulate evidence the first to decide are those with the strongest initial biases. Their decisions align with their initial bias, regardless of the underlying truth. In contrast, agents who decide last make decisions as if they were initially unbiased and hence make better choices. We obtain asymptotic expressions in the large population limit quantifying how agents' initial inclinations shape early decisions. Our analysis shows how bias, information quality, and decision order interact in nontrivial ways to determine the reliability of decisions in a group.
期刊介绍:
Physical Review E (PRE), broad and interdisciplinary in scope, focuses on collective phenomena of many-body systems, with statistical physics and nonlinear dynamics as the central themes of the journal. Physical Review E publishes recent developments in biological and soft matter physics including granular materials, colloids, complex fluids, liquid crystals, and polymers. The journal covers fluid dynamics and plasma physics and includes sections on computational and interdisciplinary physics, for example, complex networks.