沪深 300 指数的复杂系统分析:股票相关网络中的演化、弹性和预测

IF 2.3 4区 社会学 Q1 SOCIAL SCIENCES, INTERDISCIPLINARY
Systems Pub Date : 2024-08-05 DOI:10.3390/systems12080285
Xinyuan Luo, Jian Yin, Danqi Wei
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引用次数: 0

摘要

随着疫情在全球范围内的爆发和演变,金融市场经历了前所未有的震荡和调整,股票市场作为经济活动的重要指标,其波动性和相关性在疫情期间呈现出新的特征和趋势。我们以沪深 300 指数为基础,构建了代表大流行前、大流行和大流行后三个阶段的序列网络。我们研究了该网络不断变化的动态和复原力,预测了未来潜在的联系,从而为理解市场复苏提供了新的见解。我们的研究结果表明,市场能动态地适应大流行病的发展,见证了网络互连性的整体增强。在金融部门保持其关键作用的同时,非金融部门的影响力也在上升。尽管网络的稳定性较差,且严重依赖关键节点,但仍出现了积极的复苏轨迹。能源和交通等非金融行业成为市场复兴的关键催化剂。我们为政府监管部门和投资者提供建议,为优化市场结构、促进市场长期健康发展提供有力支持。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Complex-Systems Analysis of the CSI 300 Index: Evolution, Resilience, and Prediction in Stock Correlation Network
With the outbreak and evolution of the pandemic worldwide, the financial market has experienced unprecedented shocks and adjustments, and the volatility and correlation of the stock market, as an important indicator of economic activities, have shown new features and trends during the pandemic. Based on the CSI 300 Index, we construct a three-stage sequential network representing the pre-pandemic, pandemic, and post-relaxation phases. We investigate the evolving dynamics and resilience of the network, forecasting potential future connections, thus offering fresh insights into comprehending market recovery. Our findings unveil that the market adapts dynamically to the pandemic’s progression, witnessing an overall augmentation in network interconnectedness. While the financial sector maintains its pivotal role, the influence of non-financial sectors experiences an upsurge. Despite the network demonstrating poor stability and heavy reliance on key nodes, there exists a positive recovery trajectory. Non-financial sectors such as energy and transportation emerge as pivotal catalysts for market rejuvenation. We provide suggestions for government regulators and investors, providing strong support for optimizing the market structure and promoting the long-term healthy development of the market.
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来源期刊
Systems
Systems Decision Sciences-Information Systems and Management
CiteScore
2.80
自引率
15.80%
发文量
204
审稿时长
11 weeks
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