{"title":"沪深 300 指数的复杂系统分析:股票相关网络中的演化、弹性和预测","authors":"Xinyuan Luo, Jian Yin, Danqi Wei","doi":"10.3390/systems12080285","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"With the outbreak and evolution of the pandemic worldwide, the financial market has experienced unprecedented shocks and adjustments, and the volatility and correlation of the stock market, as an important indicator of economic activities, have shown new features and trends during the pandemic. Based on the CSI 300 Index, we construct a three-stage sequential network representing the pre-pandemic, pandemic, and post-relaxation phases. We investigate the evolving dynamics and resilience of the network, forecasting potential future connections, thus offering fresh insights into comprehending market recovery. Our findings unveil that the market adapts dynamically to the pandemic’s progression, witnessing an overall augmentation in network interconnectedness. While the financial sector maintains its pivotal role, the influence of non-financial sectors experiences an upsurge. Despite the network demonstrating poor stability and heavy reliance on key nodes, there exists a positive recovery trajectory. Non-financial sectors such as energy and transportation emerge as pivotal catalysts for market rejuvenation. We provide suggestions for government regulators and investors, providing strong support for optimizing the market structure and promoting the long-term healthy development of the market.","PeriodicalId":36394,"journal":{"name":"Systems","volume":"15 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.3000,"publicationDate":"2024-08-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Complex-Systems Analysis of the CSI 300 Index: Evolution, Resilience, and Prediction in Stock Correlation Network\",\"authors\":\"Xinyuan Luo, Jian Yin, Danqi Wei\",\"doi\":\"10.3390/systems12080285\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"With the outbreak and evolution of the pandemic worldwide, the financial market has experienced unprecedented shocks and adjustments, and the volatility and correlation of the stock market, as an important indicator of economic activities, have shown new features and trends during the pandemic. Based on the CSI 300 Index, we construct a three-stage sequential network representing the pre-pandemic, pandemic, and post-relaxation phases. We investigate the evolving dynamics and resilience of the network, forecasting potential future connections, thus offering fresh insights into comprehending market recovery. Our findings unveil that the market adapts dynamically to the pandemic’s progression, witnessing an overall augmentation in network interconnectedness. While the financial sector maintains its pivotal role, the influence of non-financial sectors experiences an upsurge. Despite the network demonstrating poor stability and heavy reliance on key nodes, there exists a positive recovery trajectory. Non-financial sectors such as energy and transportation emerge as pivotal catalysts for market rejuvenation. We provide suggestions for government regulators and investors, providing strong support for optimizing the market structure and promoting the long-term healthy development of the market.\",\"PeriodicalId\":36394,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Systems\",\"volume\":\"15 1\",\"pages\":\"\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":2.3000,\"publicationDate\":\"2024-08-05\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Systems\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"90\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.3390/systems12080285\",\"RegionNum\":4,\"RegionCategory\":\"社会学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q1\",\"JCRName\":\"SOCIAL SCIENCES, INTERDISCIPLINARY\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Systems","FirstCategoryId":"90","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.3390/systems12080285","RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"SOCIAL SCIENCES, INTERDISCIPLINARY","Score":null,"Total":0}
Complex-Systems Analysis of the CSI 300 Index: Evolution, Resilience, and Prediction in Stock Correlation Network
With the outbreak and evolution of the pandemic worldwide, the financial market has experienced unprecedented shocks and adjustments, and the volatility and correlation of the stock market, as an important indicator of economic activities, have shown new features and trends during the pandemic. Based on the CSI 300 Index, we construct a three-stage sequential network representing the pre-pandemic, pandemic, and post-relaxation phases. We investigate the evolving dynamics and resilience of the network, forecasting potential future connections, thus offering fresh insights into comprehending market recovery. Our findings unveil that the market adapts dynamically to the pandemic’s progression, witnessing an overall augmentation in network interconnectedness. While the financial sector maintains its pivotal role, the influence of non-financial sectors experiences an upsurge. Despite the network demonstrating poor stability and heavy reliance on key nodes, there exists a positive recovery trajectory. Non-financial sectors such as energy and transportation emerge as pivotal catalysts for market rejuvenation. We provide suggestions for government regulators and investors, providing strong support for optimizing the market structure and promoting the long-term healthy development of the market.