在流行病控制的两剂疫苗接种活动中优化多类型疫苗的分配:COVID-19 案例研究

IF 2.3 4区 社会学 Q1 SOCIAL SCIENCES, INTERDISCIPLINARY
Systems Pub Date : 2024-08-05 DOI:10.3390/systems12080286
Jin Zhu, Qing Wang, Min Huang
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引用次数: 0

摘要

作为对有限的医疗资源进行优化规划的典型案例,广泛接种疫苗被认为是预防和控制 2019 年新型冠状病毒病(COVID-19)大规模爆发的有效且可持续的方法。然而,由于生产和物流能力有限,初期疫苗供应短缺在所难免。这项工作的重点是在供应有限的情况下,两剂疫苗接种活动中的多类型疫苗资源分配问题。为解决这一问题,我们扩展了年龄分层的易感、暴露、感染和康复(SEIR)流行病学模型,将涉及多种疫苗类型的两剂疫苗接种活动纳入其中,以充分描述感染和接种的各个阶段。随后,我们将提出的流行病学模型整合到非线性编程(NLP)模型中,以确定在供应能力和疫苗犹豫约束条件下的最优分配策略,目标是在整个规划期限内最大限度地减少大流行导致的累计死亡人数。为了验证模型的适用性,我们基于英国中部地区针对 COVID-19 的初期大规模疫苗接种活动的实际数据进行了案例研究。然后,我们进行了一项比较研究,以证明所提方法的性能,并对模型的关键参数进行了广泛的敏感性分析。我们的研究结果表明,优先为老年人接种疫苗是减少 COVID-19 相关死亡事故的有效策略。此外,我们还发现,仅靠疫苗接种不足以在短期内控制疫情,适当的非药物干预措施对于在疫苗推广初期有效遏制病毒仍很重要。结果还显示,第一剂疫苗的相对效力是影响疫苗最佳间隔时间的重要因素。当第一剂疫苗的相对效力较低时,最好尽快完成两剂疫苗接种计划。相反,当第一剂疫苗的相对效力较高时,尽可能推迟第二剂疫苗的接种时间以提高单剂疫苗的接种比例往往更为有利。最后,我们提出的模型具有通用性,很容易扩展到其他传染病暴发的研究中,并为公共卫生部门制定有效的疫苗分配策略以应对未来可能出现的大流行病提供了重要的启示。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Optimal Allocation of Multi-Type Vaccines in a Two-Dose Vaccination Campaign for Epidemic Control: A Case Study of COVID-19
As a typical case of the optimal planning for the provision of restricted medical resources, widespread vaccination is considered an effective and sustainable way to prevent and control large-scale novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreaks. However, an initial supply shortage of vaccines is inevitable because of the narrow production and logistical capacity. This work focuses on the multi-type vaccine resource allocation problem in a two-dose vaccination campaign under limited supply. To address this issue, we extended an age-stratified susceptible, exposed, infectious, and recovered (SEIR) epidemiological model to incorporate a two-dose vaccination campaign involving multiple vaccine types to fully characterize the various stages of infection and vaccination. Afterward, we integrated the proposed epidemiological model into a nonlinear programming (NLP) model to determine the optimal allocation strategy under supply capacity and vaccine hesitancy constraints with the goal of minimizing the cumulative number of deaths due to the pandemic over the entire planning horizon. A case study based on real-world data from the initial mass vaccination campaign against COVID-19 in the Midlands, England, was taken to validate the applicability of our model. Then, we performed a comparative study to demonstrate the performance of the proposed method and conducted an extensive sensitivity analysis on critical model parameters. Our results indicate that prioritizing the allocation of vaccines to elderly persons is an effective strategy for reducing COVID-19-related fatalities. Furthermore, we found that vaccination alone will not be sufficient for epidemic control in the short term, and appropriate non-pharmacological interventions are still important for effective viral containment during the initial vaccine rollout. The results also showed that the relative efficacy of the first dose is a vital factor affecting the optimal interval between doses. It is always best to complete the two-dose vaccination schedule as soon as possible when the relative efficacy of the first dose is low. Conversely, delaying the second dose of a vaccine as long as possible to increase the proportion of the population vaccinated with a single dose tends to be more favorable when the relative efficacy of the first dose is high. Finally, our proposed model is general and easily extendable to the study of other infectious disease outbreaks and provides important implications for public health authorities seeking to develop effective vaccine allocation strategies for tackling possible future pandemics.
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来源期刊
Systems
Systems Decision Sciences-Information Systems and Management
CiteScore
2.80
自引率
15.80%
发文量
204
审稿时长
11 weeks
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