{"title":"热带气旋对印度水稻种植系统和作物日历的威胁:问题、政策实践差距和适应战略","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104722","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) has calculated that by 2050, we will need to grow 60 % more food to provide for a population of 9.3 billion people worldwide. India must increase its yearly food grain production from the current level of 252–333 million tonnes by 2050 in order to fulfil its expanding population demand. India is one of the nations most at risk from climate change due to its geophysical location and variability. This research explored the impact of cyclonic storm surges on crop calendars (‘<em>Aman</em>’ and ‘<em>Boro</em>’ rice) and also suggested adaption strategies during these conditions. This study showed that alteration of contemporary rice sowing and harvesting dates significantly impacts achieving sustained yields, surpassing all other crop management, soil, and other criteria. The origin and landfall of the cyclone of the Bay of Bengal (BoB) in pre- and post-monsoon season impede the goal of optimal rice production in Eastern and south-eastern India. We have estimated that ‘<em>Rabi</em>’ and ‘<em>Kharif</em>” rice production potential will increase by about 29 % with attainable changes to rice sowing and harvesting dates incorporating the severe cyclonic storm (SCS) landfall and rainfall in the study area. Our results also show that transformational benefits in rice yields are only possible in India if the convectional crop calendar changes with the modern scientific crop calendar. Managing the seasonal cropping calendar more effectively can benefit food security, economic success, and climate adaptability rice seed as a method for adaptation to ongoing climate change.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":4.2000,"publicationDate":"2024-08-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Threats of tropical cyclone on cropping systems and crop calendar of rice in India: Issues, policy practice gap and adaptation strategies\",\"authors\":\"\",\"doi\":\"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104722\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<div><p>The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) has calculated that by 2050, we will need to grow 60 % more food to provide for a population of 9.3 billion people worldwide. India must increase its yearly food grain production from the current level of 252–333 million tonnes by 2050 in order to fulfil its expanding population demand. India is one of the nations most at risk from climate change due to its geophysical location and variability. This research explored the impact of cyclonic storm surges on crop calendars (‘<em>Aman</em>’ and ‘<em>Boro</em>’ rice) and also suggested adaption strategies during these conditions. This study showed that alteration of contemporary rice sowing and harvesting dates significantly impacts achieving sustained yields, surpassing all other crop management, soil, and other criteria. The origin and landfall of the cyclone of the Bay of Bengal (BoB) in pre- and post-monsoon season impede the goal of optimal rice production in Eastern and south-eastern India. We have estimated that ‘<em>Rabi</em>’ and ‘<em>Kharif</em>” rice production potential will increase by about 29 % with attainable changes to rice sowing and harvesting dates incorporating the severe cyclonic storm (SCS) landfall and rainfall in the study area. Our results also show that transformational benefits in rice yields are only possible in India if the convectional crop calendar changes with the modern scientific crop calendar. Managing the seasonal cropping calendar more effectively can benefit food security, economic success, and climate adaptability rice seed as a method for adaptation to ongoing climate change.</p></div>\",\"PeriodicalId\":13915,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"International journal of disaster risk reduction\",\"volume\":null,\"pages\":null},\"PeriodicalIF\":4.2000,\"publicationDate\":\"2024-08-03\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"International journal of disaster risk reduction\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"89\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212420924004849\",\"RegionNum\":1,\"RegionCategory\":\"地球科学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q1\",\"JCRName\":\"GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","FirstCategoryId":"89","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212420924004849","RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY","Score":null,"Total":0}
Threats of tropical cyclone on cropping systems and crop calendar of rice in India: Issues, policy practice gap and adaptation strategies
The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) has calculated that by 2050, we will need to grow 60 % more food to provide for a population of 9.3 billion people worldwide. India must increase its yearly food grain production from the current level of 252–333 million tonnes by 2050 in order to fulfil its expanding population demand. India is one of the nations most at risk from climate change due to its geophysical location and variability. This research explored the impact of cyclonic storm surges on crop calendars (‘Aman’ and ‘Boro’ rice) and also suggested adaption strategies during these conditions. This study showed that alteration of contemporary rice sowing and harvesting dates significantly impacts achieving sustained yields, surpassing all other crop management, soil, and other criteria. The origin and landfall of the cyclone of the Bay of Bengal (BoB) in pre- and post-monsoon season impede the goal of optimal rice production in Eastern and south-eastern India. We have estimated that ‘Rabi’ and ‘Kharif” rice production potential will increase by about 29 % with attainable changes to rice sowing and harvesting dates incorporating the severe cyclonic storm (SCS) landfall and rainfall in the study area. Our results also show that transformational benefits in rice yields are only possible in India if the convectional crop calendar changes with the modern scientific crop calendar. Managing the seasonal cropping calendar more effectively can benefit food security, economic success, and climate adaptability rice seed as a method for adaptation to ongoing climate change.
期刊介绍:
The International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction (IJDRR) is the journal for researchers, policymakers and practitioners across diverse disciplines: earth sciences and their implications; environmental sciences; engineering; urban studies; geography; and the social sciences. IJDRR publishes fundamental and applied research, critical reviews, policy papers and case studies with a particular focus on multi-disciplinary research that aims to reduce the impact of natural, technological, social and intentional disasters. IJDRR stimulates exchange of ideas and knowledge transfer on disaster research, mitigation, adaptation, prevention and risk reduction at all geographical scales: local, national and international.
Key topics:-
-multifaceted disaster and cascading disasters
-the development of disaster risk reduction strategies and techniques
-discussion and development of effective warning and educational systems for risk management at all levels
-disasters associated with climate change
-vulnerability analysis and vulnerability trends
-emerging risks
-resilience against disasters.
The journal particularly encourages papers that approach risk from a multi-disciplinary perspective.