{"title":"预防能力大大降低了青海高原牲畜遭受雪灾的风险","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104714","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Livestock snow disaster is one of the most serious natural disasters in pastoral areas during cold seasons, leading to substantial livestock losses over the past few decades. Accurate assessment of livestock exposure is crucial for reducing the risk of livestock snow disaster, while much less is known about the livestock exposure due to the lack of available gridded livestock density data with long time series. In this study, the gridded density datasets of large livestock, sheep and total livestock at a spatial resolution of 1 km across the Qinghai Plateau (QP) during 1983–2018 were generated by developing livestock density models and disaggregating livestock census data. Then, the spatiotemporal patterns of livestock exposure to snow hazards in the QP were explored and the relative contributions of influencing factors (snow hazard, livestock density and prevention capacity) were quantified. There was a significant negative trend (<em>p</em> < 0.10) of −1.16 × 10<sup>6</sup> standard sheep units (SSUs) decade<sup>−1</sup> in annual total livestock number and −4.67 × 10<sup>7</sup> SSUs-day decade<sup>−1</sup> (<em>p</em> < 0.05) in annual total livestock exposure across the QP from 1983 to 2018. Spatially, snow hazard, livestock density and prevention capacity dominated the total livestock exposure changes in 38.11 %, 22.70 % and 34.95 % of pastoral areas, respectively. However, the reduction in total livestock exposure across the QP was primarily contributed by prevention capacity (56.13 %). This study provides a comprehensive understanding and scientific decision-making basis for livestock snow disaster mitigation and risk management, contributing to the high-quality development of pastoral areas.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":4.2000,"publicationDate":"2024-08-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S221242092400476X/pdfft?md5=31c031abb50149c1a8491b4c341a9830&pid=1-s2.0-S221242092400476X-main.pdf","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Prevention capacity significantly reduced the livestock exposure to snow hazards across the Qinghai Plateau\",\"authors\":\"\",\"doi\":\"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104714\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<div><p>Livestock snow disaster is one of the most serious natural disasters in pastoral areas during cold seasons, leading to substantial livestock losses over the past few decades. Accurate assessment of livestock exposure is crucial for reducing the risk of livestock snow disaster, while much less is known about the livestock exposure due to the lack of available gridded livestock density data with long time series. In this study, the gridded density datasets of large livestock, sheep and total livestock at a spatial resolution of 1 km across the Qinghai Plateau (QP) during 1983–2018 were generated by developing livestock density models and disaggregating livestock census data. Then, the spatiotemporal patterns of livestock exposure to snow hazards in the QP were explored and the relative contributions of influencing factors (snow hazard, livestock density and prevention capacity) were quantified. There was a significant negative trend (<em>p</em> < 0.10) of −1.16 × 10<sup>6</sup> standard sheep units (SSUs) decade<sup>−1</sup> in annual total livestock number and −4.67 × 10<sup>7</sup> SSUs-day decade<sup>−1</sup> (<em>p</em> < 0.05) in annual total livestock exposure across the QP from 1983 to 2018. Spatially, snow hazard, livestock density and prevention capacity dominated the total livestock exposure changes in 38.11 %, 22.70 % and 34.95 % of pastoral areas, respectively. However, the reduction in total livestock exposure across the QP was primarily contributed by prevention capacity (56.13 %). 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引用次数: 0
摘要
牲畜雪灾是寒冷季节牧区最严重的自然灾害之一,在过去几十年中导致了大量牲畜损失。准确评估牲畜受灾情况对降低牲畜雪灾风险至关重要,但由于缺乏长时间序列的网格牲畜密度数据,人们对牲畜受灾情况的了解较少。在本研究中,通过建立牲畜密度模型并分解牲畜普查数据,生成了 1983-2018 年青海高原(QP)范围内空间分辨率为 1 km 的大牲畜、绵羊和总牲畜的网格密度数据集。然后,探讨了青海高原牲畜雪灾暴露的时空模式,并量化了影响因素(雪灾、牲畜密度和预防能力)的相对贡献。从1983年到2018年,整个青藏高原的年牲畜总数量呈-1.16×10标准羊单位(SSUs)十年、年牲畜总暴露量呈-4.67×10标准羊单位-天十年(<0.05)的明显负趋势。从空间上看,雪灾、牲畜密度和防灾能力分别在38.11%、22.70%和34.95%的牧区主导了牲畜总暴露量的变化。然而,整个青藏高原牲畜暴露总量的减少主要归功于预防能力(56.13%)。这项研究为牲畜雪灾减灾和风险管理提供了全面的认识和科学的决策依据,有助于牧区的高质量发展。
Prevention capacity significantly reduced the livestock exposure to snow hazards across the Qinghai Plateau
Livestock snow disaster is one of the most serious natural disasters in pastoral areas during cold seasons, leading to substantial livestock losses over the past few decades. Accurate assessment of livestock exposure is crucial for reducing the risk of livestock snow disaster, while much less is known about the livestock exposure due to the lack of available gridded livestock density data with long time series. In this study, the gridded density datasets of large livestock, sheep and total livestock at a spatial resolution of 1 km across the Qinghai Plateau (QP) during 1983–2018 were generated by developing livestock density models and disaggregating livestock census data. Then, the spatiotemporal patterns of livestock exposure to snow hazards in the QP were explored and the relative contributions of influencing factors (snow hazard, livestock density and prevention capacity) were quantified. There was a significant negative trend (p < 0.10) of −1.16 × 106 standard sheep units (SSUs) decade−1 in annual total livestock number and −4.67 × 107 SSUs-day decade−1 (p < 0.05) in annual total livestock exposure across the QP from 1983 to 2018. Spatially, snow hazard, livestock density and prevention capacity dominated the total livestock exposure changes in 38.11 %, 22.70 % and 34.95 % of pastoral areas, respectively. However, the reduction in total livestock exposure across the QP was primarily contributed by prevention capacity (56.13 %). This study provides a comprehensive understanding and scientific decision-making basis for livestock snow disaster mitigation and risk management, contributing to the high-quality development of pastoral areas.
期刊介绍:
The International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction (IJDRR) is the journal for researchers, policymakers and practitioners across diverse disciplines: earth sciences and their implications; environmental sciences; engineering; urban studies; geography; and the social sciences. IJDRR publishes fundamental and applied research, critical reviews, policy papers and case studies with a particular focus on multi-disciplinary research that aims to reduce the impact of natural, technological, social and intentional disasters. IJDRR stimulates exchange of ideas and knowledge transfer on disaster research, mitigation, adaptation, prevention and risk reduction at all geographical scales: local, national and international.
Key topics:-
-multifaceted disaster and cascading disasters
-the development of disaster risk reduction strategies and techniques
-discussion and development of effective warning and educational systems for risk management at all levels
-disasters associated with climate change
-vulnerability analysis and vulnerability trends
-emerging risks
-resilience against disasters.
The journal particularly encourages papers that approach risk from a multi-disciplinary perspective.