结合自适应观测误差调整的野火蔓延数据驱动预测实验和数值研究

IF 3.4 3区 工程技术 Q2 ENGINEERING, CIVIL
Zheng Wang , Xingdong Li , Mengxia Zha , Jie Ji
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引用次数: 0

摘要

在最近的野火预测研究中,数据同化(DA)方法(如集合卡尔曼滤波)在整合观测数据以提高预测精度方面获得了广泛关注。以往的研究大多认为观测数据是准确的,并设定了较小的观测误差,这导致在观测误差较大的情况下,预测结果并不可靠。为了解决这个问题,我们的研究引入了一种方法,通过比较观测数据和模拟数据,反复调整观测误差的可能范围。我们进行了 30 米实验和千米尺度的数值模拟。与之前的研究不同,我们对真实和合成观测数据都采用了较大的误差范围(与真实数据的相似度指数范围为 0.6 至 1)。在实验中,为了增加火灾蔓延的复杂性,我们采用了异质燃料布置。由于燃烧不完全,出现了不规则的火焰前沿,很难在模拟中复制。利用真实观测数据对预测进行修正,可以获得更高的精度。此外,为了提高算法的适用性,在设计数值模拟时考虑了观测误差是否随时间变化的问题。使用拟议方法预测火锋的均方根误差仍然低于传统的DA方法。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Experimental and numerical study on data-driven prediction for wildfire spread incorporating adaptive observation error adjustment

In recent wildfire prediction research, data assimilation (DA) methods like Ensemble Kalman filtering have gained traction for integrating observation data to enhance prediction accuracy. Most previous studies trusted that the observation data were accurate, and set a small observation error, which causes unreliable predicted results for scenarios with large observation error. To tackle this, our study introduced a method that iteratively adjusted the potential range of observation errors by comparing observation and simulation data over time. We conducted a 30-m experiment and kilometer-scale numerical simulations. Unlike prior research, we adopted larger error ranges (the similarity index with true data ranges from 0.6 to 1) for both real and synthetic observation data. In the experiment, to increase the complexity of fire spread, a heterogeneous fuel arrangement was employed. Irregular flame fronts appeared due to incomplete combustion and were difficult to replicate in simulations. Better accuracy was achieved using real observation data to revise predictions. Furthermore, to improve the applicability of the algorithm, numerical simulations were designed to consider observation error changing over time or not. The Root Mean Square Errors for the fire front prediction using the proposed method remained lower than that of the traditional DA approach.

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来源期刊
Fire Safety Journal
Fire Safety Journal 工程技术-材料科学:综合
CiteScore
5.70
自引率
9.70%
发文量
153
审稿时长
60 days
期刊介绍: Fire Safety Journal is the leading publication dealing with all aspects of fire safety engineering. Its scope is purposefully wide, as it is deemed important to encourage papers from all sources within this multidisciplinary subject, thus providing a forum for its further development as a distinct engineering discipline. This is an essential step towards gaining a status equal to that enjoyed by the other engineering disciplines.
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