{"title":"结合自适应观测误差调整的野火蔓延数据驱动预测实验和数值研究","authors":"Zheng Wang , Xingdong Li , Mengxia Zha , Jie Ji","doi":"10.1016/j.firesaf.2024.104230","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>In recent wildfire prediction research, data assimilation (DA) methods like Ensemble Kalman filtering have gained traction for integrating observation data to enhance prediction accuracy. Most previous studies trusted that the observation data were accurate, and set a small observation error, which causes unreliable predicted results for scenarios with large observation error. To tackle this, our study introduced a method that iteratively adjusted the potential range of observation errors by comparing observation and simulation data over time. We conducted a 30-m experiment and kilometer-scale numerical simulations. Unlike prior research, we adopted larger error ranges (the similarity index with true data ranges from 0.6 to 1) for both real and synthetic observation data. In the experiment, to increase the complexity of fire spread, a heterogeneous fuel arrangement was employed. Irregular flame fronts appeared due to incomplete combustion and were difficult to replicate in simulations. Better accuracy was achieved using real observation data to revise predictions. Furthermore, to improve the applicability of the algorithm, numerical simulations were designed to consider observation error changing over time or not. The Root Mean Square Errors for the fire front prediction using the proposed method remained lower than that of the traditional DA approach.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":50445,"journal":{"name":"Fire Safety Journal","volume":"148 ","pages":"Article 104230"},"PeriodicalIF":3.4000,"publicationDate":"2024-07-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Experimental and numerical study on data-driven prediction for wildfire spread incorporating adaptive observation error adjustment\",\"authors\":\"Zheng Wang , Xingdong Li , Mengxia Zha , Jie Ji\",\"doi\":\"10.1016/j.firesaf.2024.104230\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<div><p>In recent wildfire prediction research, data assimilation (DA) methods like Ensemble Kalman filtering have gained traction for integrating observation data to enhance prediction accuracy. Most previous studies trusted that the observation data were accurate, and set a small observation error, which causes unreliable predicted results for scenarios with large observation error. To tackle this, our study introduced a method that iteratively adjusted the potential range of observation errors by comparing observation and simulation data over time. We conducted a 30-m experiment and kilometer-scale numerical simulations. Unlike prior research, we adopted larger error ranges (the similarity index with true data ranges from 0.6 to 1) for both real and synthetic observation data. In the experiment, to increase the complexity of fire spread, a heterogeneous fuel arrangement was employed. Irregular flame fronts appeared due to incomplete combustion and were difficult to replicate in simulations. Better accuracy was achieved using real observation data to revise predictions. Furthermore, to improve the applicability of the algorithm, numerical simulations were designed to consider observation error changing over time or not. The Root Mean Square Errors for the fire front prediction using the proposed method remained lower than that of the traditional DA approach.</p></div>\",\"PeriodicalId\":50445,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Fire Safety Journal\",\"volume\":\"148 \",\"pages\":\"Article 104230\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":3.4000,\"publicationDate\":\"2024-07-30\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Fire Safety Journal\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"5\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0379711224001437\",\"RegionNum\":3,\"RegionCategory\":\"工程技术\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q2\",\"JCRName\":\"ENGINEERING, CIVIL\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Fire Safety Journal","FirstCategoryId":"5","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0379711224001437","RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"ENGINEERING, CIVIL","Score":null,"Total":0}
Experimental and numerical study on data-driven prediction for wildfire spread incorporating adaptive observation error adjustment
In recent wildfire prediction research, data assimilation (DA) methods like Ensemble Kalman filtering have gained traction for integrating observation data to enhance prediction accuracy. Most previous studies trusted that the observation data were accurate, and set a small observation error, which causes unreliable predicted results for scenarios with large observation error. To tackle this, our study introduced a method that iteratively adjusted the potential range of observation errors by comparing observation and simulation data over time. We conducted a 30-m experiment and kilometer-scale numerical simulations. Unlike prior research, we adopted larger error ranges (the similarity index with true data ranges from 0.6 to 1) for both real and synthetic observation data. In the experiment, to increase the complexity of fire spread, a heterogeneous fuel arrangement was employed. Irregular flame fronts appeared due to incomplete combustion and were difficult to replicate in simulations. Better accuracy was achieved using real observation data to revise predictions. Furthermore, to improve the applicability of the algorithm, numerical simulations were designed to consider observation error changing over time or not. The Root Mean Square Errors for the fire front prediction using the proposed method remained lower than that of the traditional DA approach.
期刊介绍:
Fire Safety Journal is the leading publication dealing with all aspects of fire safety engineering. Its scope is purposefully wide, as it is deemed important to encourage papers from all sources within this multidisciplinary subject, thus providing a forum for its further development as a distinct engineering discipline. This is an essential step towards gaining a status equal to that enjoyed by the other engineering disciplines.