Trading off nature for nature-based solutions: The bioeconomics of forest management for wildlife, timber, and carbon

Nature-based solutions are attracting interest for their potential to enlist ecological processes as cost-effective and safe ways to capture and store carbon in forest ecosystems. Such solutions often need to be implemented in landscapes in which there are longer established values for other ecosystem services including wildlife and timber production. Here we develop an integrative model that illustrates the inherent trade-offs that will arise among the competing values for landscape space and how to resolve them. The analysis characterizes boreal forest ecosystem dynamics involving interactions among the main trophic compartments of an intact boreal ecosystem, aka “nature.” The model accounts for carbon accumulation via biomass growth of forest trees (timber), carbon loss due to controls from moose herbivory that varies with moose population density (hunting), and soil carbon inputs and release, which together determine the carbon sink strength of the ecosystem. We link the ecological dynamics with an economic analysis by assigning a price to carbon stored within the intact boreal forest ecosystem. We then weigh these carbon impacts against the economic benefits of timber production and hunting across a range of moose population densities. Combined, this carbon-bioeconomic program calculates the total ecosystem benefit of a modeled boreal forest system, providing a framework for examining how different forest harvest and moose densities influence the achievement of carbon storage targets, under different levels of carbon pricing. The analysis shows that promoting nature-based solutions merely for carbon storage may result in loss of a key part of “nature” via loss of the trophic structure and key functional controls in the ecosystem.