When fortune favors women: Do marginal increases in female representation persist?

This study investigates whether incidental electoral successes of women contribute to sustained gender parity in Finland, a leader in gender equality. Utilizing election lotteries used to resolve ties in vote counts, we estimate the causal effect of female representation. Our findings indicate that women’s electoral performance (measured by female seat and vote shares) within parties improves following a lottery win, potentially due to increased exposure. However, these gains are offset by negative spillovers on female candidates from other parties. One reason why this may occur is that voters and parties may perceive sufficient female representation has been achieved, leading to reduced support for female candidates in other parties. Consequently, marginal increases in female representation do not translate to overall gains in women elected. In high but uneven gender parity contexts, such increases may not be self-reinforcing, highlighting the complexity of achieving sustained gender equality in politics.